Kalshi odds today › Climate and Weather
Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Climate and Weather · Event KXRONI-27AUG
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 3.0°C at 53%, followed by 2.5°C to 2.9°C at 28%, 2.0°C to 2.4°C at 5.5%. 67.4K contracts have traded, 2.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3.0°C | 53% | · | 31.5K | 10.8K |
| 2.5°C to 2.9°C | 28% | -27 pts | 20.7K | 6.9K |
| 2.0°C to 2.4°C | 5.5% | -5 pts | 10.1K | 5.4K |
| 1.5°C to 1.9°C | 4.0% | · | 4.1K | 1.1K |
| Below 1.5°C | 3.0% | · | 1.1K | 246 |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ At least 3.0°C ■ 2.5°C to 2.9°C ■ 2.0°C to 2.4°C · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the peak RONI value during the 2026-27 El Niño season is below 1.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes. The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 3.0°C at 53%, followed by 2.5°C to 2.9°C at 28%, 2.0°C to 2.4°C at 5.5%. 67.4K contracts have traded, 2.8K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is August 15, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/what-will-the-peak-roni-value-be-during-the-2026-27-el-ni-o-season/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/what-will-the-peak-roni-value-be-during-the-2026-27-el-ni-o-season/">What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/what-will-the-peak-roni-value-be-during-the-2026-27-el-ni-o-season.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).