Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 9, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Climate and Weather · Event KXHURRLANDFL4-31DEC26
As of October 9, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 4.0% (4¢ per contract), with 42.3K contracts traded in total and 28.5K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Yes · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If a Category 4 or higher hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Florida Keys) between October 6, 2026 at 11:15:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes. The hurricane's center must cross the specified coastline at the qualifying intensity. NHC's initial operational landfall report governs, subject to the contract's material-error correction rules.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?
As of October 9, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 4.0% (4¢ per contract), with 42.3K contracts traded in total and 28.5K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026 market close?
The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/florida-cat-4-hurricane-landfall-by-dec-31-2026/">Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 9). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 9, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/florida-cat-4-hurricane-landfall-by-dec-31-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsfloridacat4hurricanelandfallbydec312026, title = {Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-09 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/florida-cat-4-hurricane-landfall-by-dec-31-2026/}}
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