Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? Kalshi Odds: Yes 6.0% Today

Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Climate and Weather · Event KXHURPATHHAWAII-26DEC

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

How this market settles

“If a 74 mph or higher hurricane makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season, then the market resolves to Yes. This market encompasses the primary southeastern islands of the state of Hawaii. Those islands are: Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Kahoʻolawe, Maui, and the island of Hawai'i. It does not include the Midway Atoll, nor the Northwestern Islands, also known as the Leeward Hawaiian Islands.”

Related Climate and Weather markets

Frequently asked questions

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
Yes	6.0%	+1 pts	163.6K	53.4K

What are the Kalshi odds for Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?

As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 6.0% (6¢ per contract), with 163.6K contracts traded in total and 103 in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026 market close?

The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-in-2026/

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@misc{kalshiview2026marketswillahurricanemakelandfallinhawaiiin2026, title = {Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-in-2026/}}

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