Kalshi odds today › Climate and Weather

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? Kalshi Odds

Snapshot September 25, 2026 at 03:49 UTC · Category: Climate and Weather · Event KXHURPATHHAWAII-26DEC

As of September 25, 2026 at 03:49 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 7.5% (8¢ per contract), with 140.6K contracts traded in total and 21.2K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeChance24h changeVolumeOpen interest
Yes7.5%
-8 pts140.6K46.8K

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

0%25%50%75%100%Aug 26Sep 24

■ Yes · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If a 74 mph or higher hurricane makes landfall in Hawaii during the 2026 hurricane season, then the market resolves to Yes. This market encompasses the primary southeastern islands of the state of Hawaii. Those islands are: Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Kahoʻolawe, Maui, and the island of Hawai'i. It does not include the Midway Atoll, nor the Northwestern Islands, also known as the Leeward Hawaiian Islands.”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.

Related Climate and Weather markets

Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?

As of September 25, 2026 at 03:49 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 7.5% (8¢ per contract), with 140.6K contracts traded in total and 21.2K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026 market close?

The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

Use this data

Embed these odds

Paste on your site or newsletter; it updates with this page.

<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-in-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? Kalshi odds"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-in-2026/">Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>

Free JSON

/api/v1/markets/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-in-2026.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).

Cite this page

APA

Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 25, 2026 at 03:49 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-in-2026/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketswillahurricanemakelandfallinhawaiiin2026, title = {Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-25 03:49 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-in-2026/}}

HTML credit

<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-in-2026/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>

CC BY 4.0: keep a visible link to this page. More formats: how to cite and reuse Kalshi View.