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Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent: Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXVOTEBR2-BRPRES26LULA
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 44% at 98%, followed by At least 45% at 96%, At least 46% at 87%. 28.9K contracts have traded, 22.2K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| At least 44% | 98% | · | 0 | 0 |
| At least 45% | 96% | · | 15.6K | 2.3K |
| At least 46% | 87% | -2 pts | 4.6K | 4.0K |
| At least 47% | 76% | -3 pts | 4.6K | 2.5K |
| At least 48% | 54% | -4 pts | 1.9K | 1.1K |
| At least 49% | 36% | · | 1.2K | 1.2K |
| At least 50% | 16% | · | 580 | 500 |
| At least 51% | 9.5% | · | 8 | 8 |
| At least 52% | 3.5% | · | 500 | 500 |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 44% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's share of the valid votes cast in the second round (runoff), calculated as votes received divided by total valid votes cast, times 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions in the Contract, resolution uses certified official results from the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, not preliminary results. Invalid, spoiled, blank, and rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent?
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is At least 44% at 98%, followed by At least 45% at 96%, At least 46% at 87%. 28.9K contracts have traded, 22.2K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent market close?
The listed close date is October 25, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-lula-vote-percent/
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@misc{kalshiview2026marketsbrazilpresidentialrunofflulavotepercent, title = {Brazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-lula-vote-percent/}}HTML credit
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