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Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory: Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBRPRES2MOVD-BRPRES26LULA
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Lula da Silva, ≥1% at 11%, followed by Lula da Silva, ≥3% at 4.5%, Lula da Silva, ≥7% at 2.5%. 38.8K contracts have traded, 36.8K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| Lula da Silva, ≥1% | 11% | -1 pts | 5.7K | 5.5K |
| Lula da Silva, ≥3% | 4.5% | · | 1.9K | 1.9K |
| Lula da Silva, ≥7% | 2.5% | -3 pts | 28.9K | 9.9K |
| Lula da Silva, ≥5% | 2.5% | · | 1.4K | 1.4K |
| Lula da Silva, ≥9% | 1.5% | -2 pts | 860 | 860 |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff is at or above 1%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes (excluding blank and null votes) received by Lula da Silva minus the share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Lula da Silva if Lula da Silva wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Lula da Silva loses. If Lula da Silva wins, the margin will be positive; if Lula da Silva loses, the margin will be negative; if Lula da Silva ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Lula da Silva runs under …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory?
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Lula da Silva, ≥1% at 11%, followed by Lula da Silva, ≥3% at 4.5%, Lula da Silva, ≥7% at 2.5%. 38.8K contracts have traded, 36.8K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory market close?
The listed close date is October 25, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-lula-margin-of-victory/
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@misc{kalshiview2026marketsbrazilpresidentialrunofflulamarginofvictory, title = {Brazil presidential runoff: Lula margin of victory: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-runoff-lula-margin-of-victory/}}HTML credit
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