Snapshot October 15, 2026 at 16:28 UTC · Category: Elections · Event HOUSEAZ1-26
As of October 15, 2026 at 16:28 UTC, the leading outcome is Amish Shah at 78%, followed by Jay Feely at 18%. 141.1K contracts have traded, 35.3K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Amish Shah ■ Jay Feely · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the House member sworn in for AZ-01 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Democratic party, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.”
As of October 15, 2026 at 16:28 UTC, the leading outcome is Amish Shah at 78%, followed by Jay Feely at 18%. 141.1K contracts have traded, 35.3K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the AZ-01 House winner market close?
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/az-01-house-winner/">AZ-01 House winner? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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AZ-01 House winner? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 15). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 15, 2026 at 16:28 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/az-01-house-winner/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsaz01housewinner, title = {AZ-01 House winner? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-15 16:28 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/az-01-house-winner/}}
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
