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Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Kalshi Odds

Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 22:02 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXCAWEALTHTAX-26

As of September 24, 2026 at 22:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 29% (29¢ per contract), with 1.1M contracts traded in total and 30.2K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeChance24h changeVolumeOpen interest
Yes29%
+1 pts1.1M379.4K

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

0%25%50%75%100%Aug 26Sep 24

■ Yes · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If a one-time tax on billionaires ballot initiative in California passes, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass?

As of September 24, 2026 at 22:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 29% (29¢ per contract), with 1.1M contracts traded in total and 30.2K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass market close?

The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 22:02 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-california-billionaire-wealth-tax-pass/

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@misc{kalshiview2026marketswillthecaliforniabillionairewealthtaxpass, title = {Will the California billionaire wealth tax pass? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 22:02 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-california-billionaire-wealth-tax-pass/}}

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