Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXDEMCOREFOURSENATESWEEP-26NOV03
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 47% (47¢ per contract), with 394.4K contracts traded in total and 4.4K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Yes · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Democrats win the 2026 Senate elections in ALL of the following states: Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, AND Maine, then the market resolves to Yes. This market requires ALL specified candidates/parties/options to win their respective elections for a Yes resolution. If even one loses, the entire market resolves to No. For parliamentary elections, the party with the most seats wins. For referenda, the specified option must achieve the required threshold. For indirect elections, the ultimate officeholder matters, not intermediate selectors. Postponed elections remain open until rescheduled or two years from original date. Annulled elections remain open until re-run. Death after election but before taking office still counts as a win. In case of ties, the winner through the jurisdiction's tiebreak mechanism prevails. This market is eligible for accelerated determination two days after …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races?
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 47% (47¢ per contract), with 394.4K contracts traded in total and 4.4K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races market close?
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-democrats-sweep-the-core-four-senate-races/">Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-democrats-sweep-the-core-four-senate-races/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswilldemocratssweepthecorefoursenateraces, title = {Will Democrats sweep the "core four" Senate races? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-democrats-sweep-the-core-four-senate-races/}}
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