Snapshot September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC · Category: Science and Technology · Event KXGEMINI-GEM4
As of September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 96%, followed by Before Dec 15, 2026 at 92%, Before Dec 1, 2026 at 92%. 148.4K contracts have traded, 69.0K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Jan 1, 2027 ■ Before Dec 1, 2026 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Google releases Gemini 4 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Release must be to the public, outside of a closed beta, though limiting it to a high-cost subscription tier is acceptable.”
What are the Kalshi odds for When will Google release Gemini 4?
As of September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 96%, followed by Before Dec 15, 2026 at 92%, Before Dec 1, 2026 at 92%. 148.4K contracts have traded, 69.0K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the When will Google release Gemini 4 market close?
The listed close dates range from October 1, 2026 to January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-google-release-gemini-4/">When will Google release Gemini 4? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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When will Google release Gemini 4? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 30). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-google-release-gemini-4/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswhenwillgooglereleasegemini4, title = {When will Google release Gemini 4? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-30 15:25 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/when-will-google-release-gemini-4/}}
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