Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXSTATE51-29
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Cuba at 3.5%, followed by Venezuela at 2.2%, Greenland at 1.8%. 1.8M contracts have traded, 5.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuba | 3.5% | · | 249.8K | 98.9K |
| Venezuela | 2.2% | · | 405.5K | 103.4K |
| Greenland | 1.8% | +1 pts | 439.5K | 148.2K |
| Puerto Rico | 1.7% | · | 209.1K | 71.6K |
| Canada | 1.5% | · | 227.4K | 94.5K |
| Guam | 0.8% | +0 pts | 83.6K | 57.1K |
| Colombia | 0.5% | · | 95.7K | 65.8K |
| District of Columbia | 0.5% | · | 116.9K | 67.6K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Cuba ■ Venezuela ■ Greenland · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the 51st state is District of Columbia before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Cuba at 3.5%, followed by Venezuela at 2.2%, Greenland at 1.8%. 1.8M contracts have traded, 5.5K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is January 20, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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