Kalshi odds todayScience and Technology

Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai): Kalshi Odds

Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC · Category: Science and Technology · Event KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26SEP30

As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Claude at 86%, followed by ChatGPT at 9.5%, Qwen at 4.0%. 118.5K contracts have traded, 32.1K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeChance24h changeVolumeOpen interest
Claude86%
+48 pts24.3K13.3K
ChatGPT9.5%
-54 pts64.3K15.2K
Qwen4.0%
·5.1K3.1K
Grok2.0%
·3.7K2.6K
Gemini1.0%
·5.8K4.3K
Dola1.0%
·5.1K3.7K
Kimi1.0%
·3.5K2.5K
GLM1.0%
·3.5K2.5K
MiniMax1.0%
·3.3K2.5K

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 24

Claude ChatGPT Qwen · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes. Tied rankings shall be resolved using the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank among them. If multiple candidates are tied for a given rank, then their Contracts will resolve to $1/(the number of candidates tied), rounded down. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai)?

As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Claude at 86%, followed by ChatGPT at 9.5%, Qwen at 4.0%. 118.5K contracts have traded, 32.1K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai) market close?

The listed close date is September 30, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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APA

Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai): Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/top-coding-ai-this-month-arena-ai/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketstopcodingaithismontharenaai, title = {Top Coding AI this month (Arena.ai): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 11:56 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/top-coding-ai-this-month-arena-ai/}}

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