Snapshot October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Economics · Event KXTXOIL-27MAR31
As of October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 5.6 million barrels/day at 98%, followed by Above 5.7 million barrels/day at 98%, Above 5.8 million barrels/day at 36%. 144.0K contracts have traded, 2.2K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Above 5.6 million barrels/day ■ Above 5.7 million barrels/day ■ Above 5.8 million barrels/day · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.6 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day and will be converted to million barrels per day by dividing by 1,000. EIA notes that its Texas estimates may differ from Railroad Commission of Texas figures, so only EIA data will be used.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Texas crude oil production in 2026?
As of October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 5.6 million barrels/day at 98%, followed by Above 5.7 million barrels/day at 98%, Above 5.8 million barrels/day at 36%. 144.0K contracts have traded, 2.2K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Texas crude oil production in 2026 market close?
The listed close date is March 31, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Texas crude oil production in 2026: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 5). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/texas-crude-oil-production-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketstexascrudeoilproductionin2026, title = {Texas crude oil production in 2026: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-05 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/texas-crude-oil-production-in-2026/}}
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