Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Economics · Event KXTXOIL-27MAR31
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 5.6 million barrels/day at 98%, followed by Above 5.7 million barrels/day at 96%, Above 5.8 million barrels/day at 57%. 84.3K contracts have traded, 38.1K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.6 million barrels/day | 98% | -1 pts | 14.2K | 3.9K |
| Above 5.7 million barrels/day | 96% | +5 pts | 43.2K | 7.2K |
| Above 5.8 million barrels/day | 57% | +17 pts | 16.3K | 8.8K |
| Above 5.9 million barrels/day | 7.5% | · | 10.6K | 4.4K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Above 5.6 million barrels/day ■ Above 5.7 million barrels/day ■ Above 5.8 million barrels/day · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If EIA reports Texas’s annual-average field production of crude oil for calendar year 2026 is above 5.6 million barrels/day, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use EIA’s Texas Field Production of Crude Oil statistic. Production is measured in thousand barrels per day and will be converted to million barrels per day by dividing by 1,000. EIA notes that its Texas estimates may differ from Railroad Commission of Texas figures, so only EIA data will be used.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 5.6 million barrels/day at 98%, followed by Above 5.7 million barrels/day at 96%, Above 5.8 million barrels/day at 57%. 84.3K contracts have traded, 38.1K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is March 31, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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