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Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds
Settled or closed · Category: Economics · Event KXFEDDECISION-26OCT
This event has no open markets at the last update (November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC). Kalshi lists Fed maintains rate as settled Yes.
Result
- Cut >25bps: settled No
- Cut 25bps: settled No
- Fed maintains rate: settled Yes
- Hike 25bps: settled No
- Hike >25bps: settled No
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.”
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Related Economics markets
More on this topic: Fed rate odds on Kalshi
Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Fed decision in Oct 2026?
This event has no open markets at the last update (November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC). Kalshi lists Fed maintains rate as settled Yes.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Fed decision in Oct 2026 market close?
The listed close date is not listed. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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APA
Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, November 7). Kalshi View. Retrieved November 7, 2026 at 16:22 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/fed-decision-in-oct-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsfeddecisioninoct2026, title = {Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Nov}, note = {Snapshot 2026-11-07 16:22 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/fed-decision-in-oct-2026/}}HTML credit
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