Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC · Category: Economics · Event KXFEDDECISION-26OCT
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Hike 25bps at 68%, followed by Fed maintains rate at 32%, Hike >25bps at 1.5%. 2.9M contracts have traded, 641.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hike 25bps | 68% | +18 pts | 819.8K | 459.8K |
| Fed maintains rate | 32% | -14 pts | 948.8K | 564.0K |
| Hike >25bps | 1.5% | +1 pts | 328.4K | 309.0K |
| Cut 25bps | 1.0% | · | 553.0K | 434.2K |
| Cut >25bps | 1.0% | · | 202.6K | 189.2K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Hike 25bps ■ Fed maintains rate ■ Hike >25bps · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Hike 25bps at 68%, followed by Fed maintains rate at 32%, Hike >25bps at 1.5%. 2.9M contracts have traded, 641.3K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is October 28, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/fed-decision-in-oct-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsfeddecisioninoct2026, title = {Fed decision in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 11:56 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/fed-decision-in-oct-2026/}}HTML credit
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