Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBRPRES-26
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Flávio Bolsonaro at 56%, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44%, Augusto Cury at 1.0%. 4.8M contracts have traded, 123.5K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 56% | -2 pts | 1.1M | 419.6K |
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 44% | +1 pts | 974.9K | 429.2K |
| Augusto Cury | 1.0% | · | 210.8K | 184.7K |
| Ciro Gomes | 1.0% | · | 238 | 238 |
| Renan Santos | <1% | -1 pts | 907.5K | 639.5K |
| Jair Bolsonaro | <1% | · | 254.6K | 220.6K |
| Fernando Haddad | <1% | · | 210.0K | 112.1K |
| Ratinho Júnior | <1% | · | 138.9K | 62.7K |
| Michelle Bolsonaro | <1% | · | 105.6K | 63.2K |
| Aldo Rebelo | <1% | · | 79.9K | 60.1K |
| Eduardo Bolsonaro | <1% | · | 57.7K | 57.6K |
| Romeu Zema | <1% | · | 324.0K | 158.7K |
| Tarcísio de Freitas | <1% | · | 268.0K | 80.9K |
| Ronaldo Caiado | <1% | · | 218.5K | 119.1K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Flávio Bolsonaro ■ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ■ Augusto Cury · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Flávio Bolsonaro at 56%, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 44%, Augusto Cury at 1.0%. 4.8M contracts have traded, 123.5K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is October 25, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/brazil-presidential-election-winner/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-winner/">Brazil Presidential election winner? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/brazil-presidential-election-winner.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).
APA
Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-winner/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsbrazilpresidentialelectionwinner, title = {Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 11:56 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-winner/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-winner/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
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