Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi Odds: Flávio Bolsonaro 86%

Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBRPRES-26

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
Flávio Bolsonaro	86%	+3 pts	2.5M	1.0M
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva	12%	-4 pts	2.7M	1.2M

■ Flávio Bolsonaro ■ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

“If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.”

Related Elections markets

Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Brazil Presidential election winner?

As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Flávio Bolsonaro at 86%, followed by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 12%. 8.3M contracts have traded, 445.8K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Brazil Presidential election winner market close?

The listed close date is October 25, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-winner/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketsbrazilpresidentialelectionwinner, title = {Brazil Presidential election winner? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-winner/}}

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