Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 19:49 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBRPRES1R-26OCT04
As of September 24, 2026 at 19:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 76%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 24%, Renan Santos at 1.0%. 196.9K contracts have traded, 24.4K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva | 76% | +3 pts | 73.3K | 27.8K |
| Flávio Bolsonaro | 24% | -6 pts | 107.5K | 43.3K |
| Renan Santos | 1.0% | · | 3.9K | 2.5K |
| Augusto Cury | 1.0% | · | 194 | 194 |
| Romeu Zema | <1% | · | 2.1K | 1.1K |
| Ronaldo Caiado | <1% | · | 2.0K | 1.4K |
| Tarcísio de Freitas | <1% | · | 290 | 290 |
| Fernando Haddad | <1% | · | 7.6K | 7.0K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ■ Flávio Bolsonaro ■ Renan Santos · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Flávio Bolsonaro wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 19:49 UTC, the leading outcome is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 76%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro at 24%, Renan Santos at 1.0%. 196.9K contracts have traded, 24.4K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is October 4, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-winner/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-winner/">Brazil presidential election: first round winner? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-winner.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).
APA
Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 19:49 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-winner/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsbrazilpresidentialelectionfirstroundwinner, title = {Brazil presidential election: first round winner? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 19:49 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-winner/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/brazil-presidential-election-first-round-winner/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
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