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Best AI in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC · Category: Science and Technology · Event KXLLM1-26OCT31
As of September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Claude at 86%, followed by Gemini at 9.5%, ChatGPT at 2.5%. 31.3K contracts have traded, 30.7K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| Claude | 86% | · | 5.6K | 5.3K |
| Gemini | 9.5% | · | 4.6K | 3.8K |
| ChatGPT | 2.5% | · | 2.4K | 2.1K |
| Kimi | 2.5% | · | 1.9K | 1.9K |
| Qwen | 1.5% | · | 12.3K | 2.7K |
| Muse | 1.5% | · | 2.4K | 2.1K |
| Grok | 1.5% | · | 2.0K | 1.9K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
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More on this topic: AI odds on Kalshi
Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Best AI in Oct 2026?
As of September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Claude at 86%, followed by Gemini at 9.5%, ChatGPT at 2.5%. 31.3K contracts have traded, 30.7K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Best AI in Oct 2026 market close?
The listed close date is October 31, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Best AI in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 30). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/best-ai-in-oct-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsbestaiinoct2026, title = {Best AI in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-30 15:25 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/best-ai-in-oct-2026/}}HTML credit
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