Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day? Kalshi Odds: Yes 5.5% Today

Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXDIESELEXPORTBAN-26

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

How this market settles

“If the United States has imposed a ban on exports of diesel that has gone into effect after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.”

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Frequently asked questions

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
Yes	5.5%	·	133.8K	64.6K

What are the Kalshi odds for Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day?

As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 5.5% (6¢ per contract), with 133.8K contracts traded in total and 2.0K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day market close?

The listed close date is November 3, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-us-ban-diesel-exports-before-election-day/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketswilltheusbandieselexportsbeforeelectionday, title = {Will the US ban diesel exports before Election Day? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-us-ban-diesel-exports-before-election-day/}}

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