Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot September 26, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXUSCHINAAIHOTLINE-27
As of September 26, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 98%, followed by Before Nov 1, 2026 at 89%, Before Oct 1, 2026 at 38%. 38.9K contracts have traded, 15.5K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Before Jan 1, 2027 ■ Before Nov 1, 2026 ■ Before Oct 1, 2026 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the governments of the United States and China have formally announced an agreement to establish, or have implemented, a bilateral notification mechanism for AI incidents that could affect national security after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. A qualifying mechanism must be a government-to-government arrangement for notifying the other government about …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline?
As of September 26, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Before Jan 1, 2027 at 98%, followed by Before Nov 1, 2026 at 89%, Before Oct 1, 2026 at 38%. 38.9K contracts have traded, 15.5K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline market close?
The listed close dates range from October 1, 2026 to January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-u-s-and-china-agree-to-establish-an-ai-hotline/">Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 26). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 26, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-u-s-and-china-agree-to-establish-an-ai-hotline/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketswilltheusandchinaagreetoestablishanaihotline, title = {Will the U.S. and China agree to establish an AI hotline? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-26 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-the-u-s-and-china-agree-to-establish-an-ai-hotline/}}
