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Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/11-10/17): Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 12, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXTRUTHSOCIAL-26OCT17
As of October 12, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 140-159 at 22%, followed by 120-139 at 22%, 160-179 at 18%. 30.4K contracts have traded, 18.2K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| 140-159 | 22% | +8 pts | 2.2K | 2.0K |
| 120-139 | 22% | +2 pts | 2.2K | 1.8K |
| 160-179 | 18% | +8 pts | 1.8K | 1.5K |
| 180-199 | 14% | +10 pts | 1.9K | 1.7K |
| 100-119 | 10% | -14 pts | 4.6K | 1.4K |
| 200-219 | 9.5% | +6 pts | 2.0K | 1.7K |
| >240 | 6.5% | +5 pts | 2.9K | 1.5K |
| 220-240 | 6.5% | +4 pts | 1.6K | 971 |
| 80-99 | 1.5% | -14 pts | 4.3K | 2.3K |
| <80 | 1.0% | -6 pts | 7.0K | 4.9K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from Oct 11, 2026 to Oct 17, 2026 is below 80, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved The observation period begins at 12:00 AM ET on Oct 11, 2026 and ends at 11:59 PM ET on Oct 17, 2026. The primary resolution source for this market is Roll Call. In the event that Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate, alternative sources may be used at Kalshi's discretion. Payout criteria Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included in the total count. Replies are included if captured by Roll Call. "Between" is inclusive of the lower and upper bound. Doesn’t count for payout: Posts deleted as of the Expiration Time.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
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More on this topic: Trump odds on Kalshi
Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/11-10/17)?
As of October 12, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 140-159 at 22%, followed by 120-139 at 22%, 160-179 at 18%. 30.4K contracts have traded, 18.2K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/11-10/17) market close?
The listed close date is October 18, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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APA
Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/11-10/17): Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 12). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 12, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/trump-truth-social-posts-this-week-10-11-10-17/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketstrumptruthsocialpoststhisweek10111017, title = {Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/11-10/17): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-12 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/trump-truth-social-posts-this-week-10-11-10-17/}}HTML credit
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