Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXREDDESTDSEN-27JAN03
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Texas at 36%, followed by Kansas at 23%, North Carolina at 10%. 137.1K contracts have traded, 209 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Texas ■ Kansas ■ North Carolina · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Mississippi is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. A state's 2024 margin is Donald Trump's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Kamala Harris's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Harris won. A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party). Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats. Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority. An unlisted …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Texas at 36%, followed by Kansas at 23%, North Carolina at 10%. 137.1K contracts have traded, 209 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026 market close?
The listed close date is January 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/reddest-state-to-elect-a-democratic-senator-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsreddeststatetoelectademocraticsenatorin2026, title = {Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/reddest-state-to-elect-a-democratic-senator-in-2026/}}
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