Kalshi odds today › 2026 midterms
Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · election day November 3, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, 28 days before the November 3, 2026 elections, Kalshi gives the Democratic Party 64% to win the Senate and the Democratic Party 91% to win the House. The closest Senate races: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 55%); Maine (Troy Jackson 57%); Ohio (Sherrod Brown 62%).
| Market | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Democratic Party | 64% | Republican Party 36% |
| House | Democratic Party | 91% | Republican Party 8.8% |
| Same party in both | Yes | 70% | - |
| State | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up | Leading candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson | 55% | Josh Turek 46% | - |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 57% | Susan Collins 44% | - |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | 62% | Jon Husted 38% | - |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall | 64% | Adam Hamilton 36% | - |
| Texas | James Talarico | 68% | Ken Paxton 32% | - |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | 72% | Mike Rogers 28% | - |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts | 72% | Dan Osborn 28% | - |
| Alaska | Democratic party | 76% | Republican party 24% | Mary Peltola 76% |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | 86% | Michele Tafoya 14% | - |
| South Carolina | Darline Graham | 86% | Annie Andrews 14% | - |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | 90% | John E. Sununu 11% | - |
| Florida | Ashley Moody | 91% | Angie Nixon 9.8% | - |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 91% | Scott Colom 9.6% | - |
| Idaho | Jim Risch | 92% | Todd Achilles 7.5% | - |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds | 93% | Brian Bengs 7.5% | - |
| Montana | Kurt Alme | 93% | Seth Bodnar 6.5% | - |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton | 94% | Hallie Shoffner 6.7% | - |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty | 95% | Marquita Bradshaw 5.0% | - |
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow | 95% | Jamie Davis 5.1% | - |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff | 96% | Mike Collins 3.8% | - |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr | 96% | Charles Booker 3.6% | - |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | 97% | Michael Whatley 3.6% | - |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern | 97% | N’Kiyla Thomas 3.4% | - |
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman | 98% | James Byrd 2.6% | - |
| Alabama | Barry Moore | 98% | Everett Wess 2.4% | - |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito | 98% | Rachel Fetty Anderson 2.5% | - |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton | 98% | Don Tracy 2.6% | - |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley | 99% | David Brock Smith 2.0% | - |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey | 98% | John Deaton 1.3% | - |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján | 98% | Larry E. Marker 1.4% | - |
| Virginia | Mark Warner | 98% | Bert Mizusawa 1.1% | - |
| Delaware | Democratic party | 99% | Republican party 1.4% | - |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker | 99% | Justin Murphy 1.0% | - |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed | 99% | Raymond McKay 0.9% | - |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper | 99% | Mark Baisley 0.9% | - |
| State | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up | Leading candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada | Aaron Ford | 50% | Joe Lombardo 50% | - |
| Georgia | Rick Jackson | 54% | Keisha Lance Bottoms 46% | - |
| Northern Mariana Islands | Blas “BJ” Attao | 62% | Ralph Torres 34% | - |
| Ohio | Amy Acton | 66% | Vivek Ramaswamy 34% | - |
| Texas | Greg Abbott | 70% | Gina Hinojosa 30% | - |
| Guam | Therese Terlaje | 68% | Tony Ada 26% | - |
| Vermont | Phil Scott | 76% | Amanda Janoo 24% | - |
| Florida | Byron Donalds | 76% | David Jolly 24% | - |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 78% | Bernadette Wilson 22% | - |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley | 80% | Tom Tiffany 22% | - |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek | 80% | Christine Drazan 20% | - |
| Iowa | Rob Sand | 88% | Zach Lahn 12% | - |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs | 88% | Andy Biggs 12% | - |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen | 89% | Lynne Walz 12% | - |
| Oklahoma | Mike Mazzei | 91% | Cyndi Munson 8.9% | - |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville | 92% | Doug Jones 8.6% | - |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Stacey Plaskett | 90% | Warren Mosler 3.0% | - |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson | 94% | John James 6.3% | - |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland | 94% | Greggory D. Hull 5.2% | - |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson | 95% | Jermaine Johnson 5.6% | - |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn | 95% | Jerri Green 5.7% | - |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree | 95% | Robert Charles 5.3% | - |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | 95% | Lisa Demuth 5.0% | - |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey | 96% | Mike Minogue 4.6% | - |
| New York | Kathy Hochul | 96% | Bruce Blakeman 4.5% | - |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 96% | Fred Love 4.1% | - |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser | 96% | Victor Marx 3.6% | - |
| California | Xavier Becerra | 97% | Steve Hilton 3.7% | - |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont | 97% | Ryan Fazio 3.7% | - |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker | 96% | Darren Bailey 3.4% | - |
| Wyoming | Eric Barlow | 97% | Kenneth Casner 3.4% | - |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes | 97% | Republican party 2.5% | - |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden | 97% | Dan Ahlers 3.1% | - |
| Maryland | Wes Moore | 97% | Dan Cox 2.6% | - |
| Idaho | Brad Little | 97% | Terri Pickens 2.5% | - |
| Hawaii | Josh Green | 97% | Gary Cordery 2.2% | - |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro | 98% | Stacy Garrity 2.2% | - |
Out of 426 House districts with an open Kalshi market.
| District | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up | Leading candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA-01 | Shannon Taylor | 51% | Rob Wittman 50% | - |
| MI-04 | Bill Huizenga | 52% | Sean McCann 46% | - |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya | 55% | Casey Askar 46% | - |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James | 56% | Joe Mitchell 45% | - |
| MI-07 | William Lawrence | 60% | Tom Barrett 40% | - |
| TX-35 | Johnny C. Garcia | 62% | Carlos De La Cruz 40% | - |
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick | 62% | Bob Harvie 38% | - |
| NC-01 | Don Davis | 62% | Laurie Buckhout 37% | - |
| TX-23 | Brandon Herrera | 64% | Katy Padilla Stout 38% | - |
| NY-17 | Cait Conley | 64% | Mike Lawler 36% | - |
| WI-01 | Bryan Steil | 64% | Mitchell Berman 36% | - |
| ME-02 | Paul LePage | 64% | Matt Dunlap 34% | - |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar | 65% | Eliott Rodriguez 34% | - |
| MI-10 | Christina Hines | 66% | Michael Bouchard Jr. 34% | - |
| FL-07 | Ryan Elijah | 66% | Bale Dalton 34% | - |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor | 66% | Mike Beltran 34% | - |
| MT-01 | Aaron Flint | 68% | Sam Forstag 33% | - |
| CO-04 | Lauren Boebert | 69% | Eileen Laubacher 32% | - |
| AZ-02 | Eli Crane | 70% | Jonathan Nez 31% | - |
| NC-11 | Jamie Ager | 70% | Jennifer Balkcom 30% | - |
| PA-08 | Paige Cognetti | 70% | Rob Bresnahan 30% | - |
| OH-09 | Marcy Kaptur | 70% | Derek Merrin 30% | - |
| CO-03 | Jeff Hurd | 70% | Dwayne Romero 29% | - |
| SC-01 | Jenny Costa Honeycutt | 70% | Nancy S. Lacore 29% | - |
| KY-06 | Ralph Alvarado | 72% | Zach Dembo 30% | - |
| FL-09 | Dan Green | 71% | Darren Soto 29% | - |
| WI-03 | Rebecca Cooke | 72% | Derrick Van Orden 28% | - |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna | 74% | Leela Gray 26% | - |
| AL-02 | Rhett Marques | 74% | Shomari Figures 26% | - |
| CO-05 | Jeff Crank | 74% | Jessica Killin 26% | - |
Favourite: the race's winner market (Kalshi labels most of them with the nominees' names); leading candidate comes from Kalshi's separate candidate market where the winner market is labelled by party. Closest first means the smallest gap between the favourite and the runner-up. Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Every race is its own market with its own rules. Kalshi's Texas Senate party market, for example, resolves Yes for the party whose representative is sworn in as senator for the term beginning in 2027, and it is eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Control markets follow the same idea for each chamber. Read the full rules on Kalshi before trading.
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APA
2026 midterms on Kalshi. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/midterms-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsmidterms2026, title = {2026 midterms on Kalshi}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/midterms-2026/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/midterms-2026/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
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the Democratic Party 64% to win the Senate and the Democratic Party 91% to win the House. The closest Senate races: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 55%); Maine (Troy Jackson 57%); Ohio (Sherrod Brown 62%).
The table lists every 2026 Senate race by the gap between the favourite and the runner-up, closest first: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 55%), Maine (Troy Jackson 57%), Ohio (Sherrod Brown 62%), Kansas (Roger Marshall 64%), Texas (James Talarico 68%).
Each race has its own rules. Kalshi's Texas Senate party market, for example, resolves Yes for the party whose representative is sworn in as senator for the term beginning in 2027, and is eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Read the rules of the market you trade.
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