Kalshi odds today › 2026 midterms
Snapshot September 26, 2026 at 03:56 UTC · election day November 3, 2026 · refreshed twice a day
As of September 26, 2026 at 03:56 UTC, 38 days before the November 3, 2026 elections, Kalshi gives the Democratic Party 62% to win the Senate and the Democratic Party 92% to win the House. The closest Senate races: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 56%); Ohio (Sherrod Brown 58%); Texas (James Talarico 62%).
| Market | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senate | Democratic Party | 62% | Republican Party 38% |
| House | Democratic Party | 92% | Republican Party 8.2% |
| Same party in both | Yes | 62% | - |
| State | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up | Leading candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson | 56% | Josh Turek 44% | - |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown | 58% | Jon Husted 42% | - |
| Texas | James Talarico | 62% | Ken Paxton 40% | - |
| Maine | Troy Jackson | 64% | Susan Collins 36% | - |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall | 66% | Adam Hamilton 34% | - |
| Alaska | Democratic party | 70% | Republican party 30% | Mary Peltola 74% |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts | 72% | Dan Osborn 30% | - |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed | 72% | Mike Rogers 28% | - |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas | 86% | John E. Sununu 15% | - |
| South Carolina | Darline Graham | 86% | Annie Andrews 14% | - |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | 90% | Michele Tafoya 11% | - |
| Florida | Ashley Moody | 90% | Angie Nixon 11% | - |
| Montana | Kurt Alme | 90% | Seth Bodnar 9.8% | - |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith | 91% | Scott Colom 9.6% | - |
| Idaho | Jim Risch | 91% | Todd Achilles 9.0% | - |
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow | 91% | Jamie Davis 7.6% | - |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds | 91% | Brian Bengs 7.5% | - |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton | 92% | Hallie Shoffner 7.9% | - |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper | 94% | Michael Whatley 6.5% | - |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff | 94% | Mike Collins 6.2% | - |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr | 95% | Charles Booker 5.1% | - |
| Alabama | Barry Moore | 98% | Everett Wess 3.8% | - |
| Virginia | Mark Warner | 98% | Bert Mizusawa 2.7% | - |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján | 98% | Larry E. Marker 2.5% | - |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley | 98% | David Brock Smith 2.2% | - |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton | 98% | Don Tracy 2.3% | - |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito | 98% | Rachel Fetty Anderson 2.3% | - |
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman | 98% | James Byrd 1.9% | - |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker | 98% | Justin Murphy 2.0% | - |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty | 98% | Marquita Bradshaw 1.8% | - |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper | 98% | Mark Baisley 1.5% | - |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern | 98% | N’Kiyla Thomas 1.4% | - |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey | 99% | John Deaton 1.4% | - |
| Delaware | Democratic party | 99% | Republican party 1.2% | - |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed | 99% | Raymond McKay 1.1% | - |
| State | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up | Leading candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Keisha Lance Bottoms | 52% | Rick Jackson 48% | - |
| Nevada | Joe Lombardo | 54% | Aaron Ford 48% | - |
| Ohio | Amy Acton | 60% | Vivek Ramaswamy 40% | - |
| Northern Mariana Islands | Blas “BJ” Attao | 70% | Ralph Torres 28% | - |
| Guam | Therese Terlaje | 70% | Tony Ada 24% | - |
| Florida | Byron Donalds | 78% | David Jolly 22% | - |
| Texas | Greg Abbott | 78% | Gina Hinojosa 22% | - |
| Alaska | Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 77% | Bernadette Wilson 18% | - |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley | 84% | Tom Tiffany 18% | - |
| Iowa | Rob Sand | 84% | Zach Lahn 16% | - |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek | 84% | Christine Drazan 16% | - |
| U.S. Virgin Islands | Stacey Plaskett | 84% | Warren Mosler 10% | - |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs | 88% | Andy Biggs 12% | - |
| Vermont | Phil Scott | 91% | Amanda Janoo 11% | - |
| Nebraska | Jim Pillen | 91% | Lynne Walz 8.2% | - |
| Oklahoma | Mike Mazzei | 92% | Cyndi Munson 8.4% | - |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville | 93% | Doug Jones 7.8% | - |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson | 93% | John James 7.3% | - |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland | 93% | Greggory D. Hull 6.9% | - |
| New York | Kathy Hochul | 94% | Bruce Blakeman 5.9% | - |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree | 94% | Robert Charles 5.7% | - |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson | 94% | Jermaine Johnson 5.6% | - |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn | 95% | Jerri Green 5.6% | - |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey | 95% | Mike Minogue 5.3% | - |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar | 95% | Lisa Demuth 5.4% | - |
| California | Xavier Becerra | 96% | Steve Hilton 3.8% | - |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes | 96% | Republican party 3.1% | - |
| Wyoming | Eric Barlow | 97% | Kenneth Casner 3.5% | - |
| Maryland | Wes Moore | 97% | Dan Cox 3.4% | - |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont | 96% | Ryan Fazio 3.1% | - |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser | 97% | Victor Marx 3.4% | - |
| Idaho | Brad Little | 97% | Terri Pickens 3.4% | - |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders | 97% | Fred Love 3.0% | - |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker | 97% | Darren Bailey 3.0% | - |
| Hawaii | Josh Green | 97% | Gary Cordery 2.8% | - |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro | 98% | Stacy Garrity 2.6% | - |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden | 98% | Dan Ahlers 2.8% | - |
Out of 426 House districts with an open Kalshi market.
| District | Favourite | Chance | Runner-up | Leading candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-04 | Bill Huizenga | 52% | Sean McCann 48% | - |
| FL-22 | Pia Dandiya | 52% | Casey Askar 48% | - |
| IA-02 | Lindsay James | 56% | Joe Mitchell 46% | - |
| VA-01 | Rob Wittman | 60% | Shannon Taylor 41% | - |
| MI-07 | William Lawrence | 60% | Tom Barrett 40% | - |
| TX-23 | Brandon Herrera | 62% | Katy Padilla Stout 40% | - |
| NC-01 | Don Davis | 62% | Laurie Buckhout 37% | - |
| PA-01 | Brian Fitzpatrick | 64% | Bob Harvie 38% | - |
| CO-03 | Jeff Hurd | 63% | Dwayne Romero 37% | - |
| NC-11 | Jamie Ager | 64% | Jennifer Balkcom 38% | - |
| AZ-02 | Eli Crane | 63% | Jonathan Nez 36% | - |
| ME-02 | Paul LePage | 64% | Matt Dunlap 34% | - |
| NY-17 | Cait Conley | 64% | Mike Lawler 36% | - |
| TX-35 | Johnny C. Garcia | 66% | Carlos De La Cruz 36% | - |
| MI-10 | Christina Hines | 66% | Michael Bouchard Jr. 34% | - |
| CA-11 | Scott Wiener | 66% | Connie Chan 32% | - |
| WI-01 | Bryan Steil | 66% | Mitchell Berman 32% | - |
| FL-09 | Dan Green | 68% | Darren Soto 33% | - |
| FL-27 | Maria Elvira Salazar | 68% | Eliott Rodriguez 32% | - |
| FL-07 | Ryan Elijah | 68% | Bale Dalton 32% | - |
| FL-14 | Kathy Castor | 68% | Mike Beltran 32% | - |
| PA-08 | Paige Cognetti | 68% | Rob Bresnahan 32% | - |
| MO-02 | Republican party | 70% | Democratic party 30% | - |
| AL-02 | Rhett Marques | 70% | Shomari Figures 30% | - |
| CO-04 | Lauren Boebert | 71% | Eileen Laubacher 30% | - |
| MT-01 | Aaron Flint | 70% | Sam Forstag 30% | - |
| CO-05 | Jeff Crank | 70% | Jessica Killin 29% | - |
| FL-13 | Anna Paulina Luna | 72% | Leela Gray 30% | - |
| WI-03 | Rebecca Cooke | 72% | Derrick Van Orden 30% | - |
| FL-25 | Jared Moskowitz | 72% | Scott Singer 29% | - |
Favourite: the race's winner market (Kalshi labels most of them with the nominees' names); leading candidate comes from Kalshi's separate candidate market where the winner market is labelled by party. Closest first means the smallest gap between the favourite and the runner-up. Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Every race is its own market with its own rules. Kalshi's Texas Senate party market, for example, resolves Yes for the party whose representative is sworn in as senator for the term beginning in 2027, and it is eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Control markets follow the same idea for each chamber. Read the full rules on Kalshi before trading.
More: all Senate markets · all House markets · all governor markets · is Kalshi legal in your state? · what an event contract is · all live Kalshi odds
Free JSON: /api/v1/markets/midterms-2026.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).
APA
2026 midterms on Kalshi. (2026, September 26). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 26, 2026 at 03:56 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/midterms-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsmidterms2026, title = {2026 midterms on Kalshi}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-26 03:56 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/midterms-2026/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/midterms-2026/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
CC BY 4.0: keep a visible link to this page. More formats: how to cite and reuse Kalshi View.
the Democratic Party 62% to win the Senate and the Democratic Party 92% to win the House. The closest Senate races: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 56%); Ohio (Sherrod Brown 58%); Texas (James Talarico 62%).
The table lists every 2026 Senate race by the gap between the favourite and the runner-up, closest first: Iowa (Ashley Hinson 56%), Ohio (Sherrod Brown 58%), Texas (James Talarico 62%), Maine (Troy Jackson 64%), Kansas (Roger Marshall 66%).
Each race has its own rules. Kalshi's Texas Senate party market, for example, resolves Yes for the party whose representative is sworn in as senator for the term beginning in 2027, and is eligible for accelerated determination once a consensus of media organizations projects the winner. Read the rules of the market you trade.
Twice a day, with the rest of the live Kalshi odds pages.