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Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Science and Technology · Event KXPLAGUECOUNT-26NOV01
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 1 or more at 30%, followed by 2 or more at 20%, 5 or more at 15%. 22.0K contracts have traded, 19.5K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the total number of human plague cases reported in Irkutsk Oblast during 2026 is at least 1, then the market resolves to Yes. Cases are determined at 10:00 AM ET on the Expiration Date (November 8). Only cases that Rospotrebnadzor, Russia's federal public health agency, confirms after Issuance and before November 1, 2026 count. Cases newly reported during the window between November 1 and Expiration do not count, even if they are backdated to the specified time period. A case is a human infection with Yersinia pestis (plague in any form) in Irkutsk Oblast, including a posthumous confirmation, and each infected person counts once. Suspected cases, and illness described as pneumonia of undetermined etiology, do not count.”
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
As of October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 1 or more at 30%, followed by 2 or more at 20%, 5 or more at 15%. 22.0K contracts have traded, 19.5K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026 market close?
The listed close date is November 1, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/confirmed-irkutsk-plague-cases-in-oct-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsconfirmedirkutskplaguecasesinoct2026, title = {Confirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/confirmed-irkutsk-plague-cases-in-oct-2026/}}HTML credit
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