California permitted housing units in 2026: Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 12, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Economics · Event KXCABUILDPERMITS-27JAN27
As of October 12, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 100,000 at 96%, followed by Above 105,000 at 90%, Above 110,000 at 60%. 61.9K contracts have traded, 32.7K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Above 100,000 ■ Above 105,000 ■ Above 110,000 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in calendar year 2026 is above 100,000, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the calendar-year total number of housing units authorized, not the number of permit documents issued. It includes units in single-family and multifamily structures. Resolution uses the first U.S. Census Bureau state-level release containing complete January–December 2026 data; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.”
What are the Kalshi odds for California permitted housing units in 2026?
As of October 12, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 100,000 at 96%, followed by Above 105,000 at 90%, Above 110,000 at 60%. 61.9K contracts have traded, 32.7K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the California permitted housing units in 2026 market close?
The listed close date is January 27, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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California permitted housing units in 2026: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 12). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 12, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/california-permitted-housing-units-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketscaliforniapermittedhousingunitsin2026, title = {California permitted housing units in 2026: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-12 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/california-permitted-housing-units-in-2026/}}
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