How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026? Kalshi Odds: Above 91,…

Snapshot September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC · Category: Economics · Event KXTXERCOTPEAK-27JAN01

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
Above 91,500 MW	4.5%	·	126.5K	45.1K
Above 94,000 MW	3.5%	·	79.7K	17.1K
Above 92,500 MW	3.5%	·	75.1K	17.5K
Above 93,000 MW	3.5%	·	42.4K	13.3K
Above 92,000 MW	2.5%	-2 pts	118.1K	45.5K
Above 96,000 MW	2.5%	·	45.1K	26.2K
Above 98,000 MW	2.5%	·	24.1K	12.2K

■ Above 91,500 MW ■ Above 94,000 MW ■ Above 92,500 MW · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

“If ERCOT reports that the integrated system load on the ERCOT grid during calendar year 2026 is above 91,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes. Resolution will use ERCOT’s integrated system load for a full hour. Instantaneous load readings will not be considered. ERCOT’s preliminary peak-demand figures may change during the settlement process. Resolution will use the applicable official settled peak-demand value published by ERCOT.”

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?

As of September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 91,500 MW at 4.5%, followed by Above 94,000 MW at 3.5%, Above 92,500 MW at 3.5%. 511.0K contracts have traded, 46.0K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026 market close?

The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 30). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-high-will-peak-electricity-demand-on-the-texas-ercot-grid-get-in-2026/

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@misc{kalshiview2026marketshowhighwillpeakelectricitydemandonthetexasercotgridgetin2026, title = {How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-30 15:25 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-high-will-peak-electricity-demand-on-the-texas-ercot-grid-get-in-2026/}}

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