Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXGOVCA-26
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Xavier Becerra at 96%, followed by Steve Hilton at 3.9%. 14.5M contracts have traded, 45.8K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Becerra | 96% | · | 5.6M | 1.9M |
| Steve Hilton | 3.9% | · | 8.9M | 4.5M |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Xavier Becerra ■ Steve Hilton · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Xavier Becerra is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Xavier Becerra at 96%, followed by Steve Hilton at 3.9%. 14.5M contracts have traded, 45.8K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is November 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/california-governor-winner-person/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="California Governor winner? (Person) Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/california-governor-winner-person/">California Governor winner? (Person) odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/california-governor-winner-person.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).