Snapshot September 25, 2026 at 08:55 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBLUESTRSEN-27JAN03
As of September 25, 2026 at 08:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Florida at 40%, followed by Maine at 30%, Ohio at 11%. 142.6K contracts have traded, 140.3K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | 40% | +2 pts | 3.9K | 3.8K |
| Maine | 30% | · | 898 | 778 |
| Ohio | 11% | · | 986 | 976 |
| Michigan | 9.5% | · | 826 | 602 |
| New Hampshire | 3.5% | · | 313 | 293 |
| Minnesota | 2.5% | · | 375 | 253 |
| Delaware | 1.5% | -1 pts | 15.8K | 10.3K |
| Colorado | 1.5% | · | 14.5K | 10.3K |
| Oregon | 1.5% | -1 pts | 10.7K | 10.3K |
| New Jersey | 1.5% | · | 10.5K | 10.3K |
| Massachusetts | 1.5% | · | 10.3K | 10.3K |
| Illinois | 1.5% | · | 10.3K | 10.3K |
| New Mexico | 1.5% | · | 10.3K | 10.3K |
| Virginia | 1.5% | · | 10.3K | 10.3K |
| Texas | 1.5% | · | 10.3K | 10.3K |
| North Carolina | 1.5% | · | 6.0K | 3.3K |
| Iowa | 1.5% | · | 3.6K | 1.9K |
| Georgia | 1.0% | · | 9.6K | 9.5K |
| Alaska | 1.0% | · | 6.7K | 6.7K |
| Rhode Island | 1.0% | · | 6.7K | 6.6K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Florida · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Massachusetts is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Donald Trump's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Trump won. A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Republican. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority. An unlisted qualifying state with the highest margin, or no …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
As of September 25, 2026 at 08:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Florida at 40%, followed by Maine at 30%, Ohio at 11%. 142.6K contracts have traded, 140.3K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is January 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
Paste on your site or newsletter; it updates with this page.
<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/bluest-state-to-elect-a-republican-senator-in-2026/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/bluest-state-to-elect-a-republican-senator-in-2026/">Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/bluest-state-to-elect-a-republican-senator-in-2026.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).
APA
Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 25). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 25, 2026 at 08:55 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/bluest-state-to-elect-a-republican-senator-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsblueststatetoelectarepublicansenatorin2026, title = {Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-25 08:55 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/bluest-state-to-elect-a-republican-senator-in-2026/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/bluest-state-to-elect-a-republican-senator-in-2026/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
CC BY 4.0: keep a visible link to this page. More formats: how to cite and reuse Kalshi View.