Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Elections · Event KXBLUESTRSEN-27JAN03
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Maine at 38%, followed by Florida at 30%, Ohio at 8.5%. 173.2K contracts have traded, 0 in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Maine ■ Florida ■ Ohio · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Massachusetts is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Donald Trump's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Trump won. A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Republican. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority. An unlisted qualifying state with the highest margin, or no …”
What are the Kalshi odds for Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?
As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Maine at 38%, followed by Florida at 30%, Ohio at 8.5%. 173.2K contracts have traded, 0 in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026 market close?
The listed close date is January 3, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/bluest-state-to-elect-a-republican-senator-in-2026/">Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 10). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/bluest-state-to-elect-a-republican-senator-in-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsblueststatetoelectarepublicansenatorin2026, title = {Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-10 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/bluest-state-to-elect-a-republican-senator-in-2026/}}
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