Photo: Erica Fischer. Source (Openverse). License: CC BY 2.0.
The October 2026 jobs report is scheduled for Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. EST, or 13:30 UTC, not October 2. Before considering a payrolls contract, check three separate items: the reference month, the trading cutoff, and the settlement terms. The October 1 source snapshot also shows a Kalshi source-link inconsistency that deserves attention.
Source snapshot: October 1, 2026 (05:31-05:34 UTC). This is a static schedule-and-verification guide, not a forecast or live prices page.
Both BLS schedule views identify November 6 as the release date for October employment data. They are two views from the same official publisher, not independent confirmations. BLS calendars can change.
The report scheduled for October 2 covers September. The separate September payrolls verification guide addresses that release. October data follows on November 6.
The UTC offset also changes. October 2 uses EDT, making 8:30 a.m. Eastern equal to 12:30 UTC. November 6 uses EST, making the same local release time 13:30 UTC. Do not carry the summer offset forward.
Inflation has a different calendar: the October CPI release is scheduled for November 10, not November 6.
The exact event, KXPAYROLLS-26OCT, was titled “Jobs numbers in October 2026?” Its nested and separate market records showed 13 active threshold contracts on October 1. That observation does not guarantee continuing availability.
For KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T50000, the primary rule stated:
“If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 50000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.”
BLS distinguishes payroll jobs from employed people. The establishment survey counts nonfarm wage-and-salary jobs, including two jobs held by one person separately. The household survey supplies employed-person and unemployment measures. These series are not interchangeable.
The PAYROLLS terms say: “Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value.” That is not equivalent to “first print always wins.”
The PDF also contains provisions for earlier expiration, a no-data fallback to the last available month by expiration, and market review. Consult the full terms rather than treating the short API description as exhaustive. The payrolls market mechanics guide provides broader background.
On October 1, the exact October event identified BLS as its settlement source and linked to the Employment Situation release. Its rules specified total nonfarm payroll employment.
However, the KXPAYROLLS series metadata labeled its source BLS while linking to a Producer Price Index endpoint. That is a genuine source-link inconsistency, not a reason to silently substitute one URL for another.
This guide does not establish which API field legally controls or claim the discrepancy is resolved. Compare the event, series metadata, and full contract terms. Seek clarification from Kalshi if the inconsistency remains. A series-only source check is insufficient.
The Employment Situation URL is also a rolling page. Before November 6, its contents need not be October’s report.
This guide is educational, not financial, legal, or tax advice. Verify current rules and access requirements directly with Kalshi before acting.
October 1, 2026, 05:31-05:34 UTC. Direct sources behind this snapshot:
BLS schedules it for Friday, November 6, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EST, equivalent to 13:30 UTC. It covers October employment data. The October 2 release covers September instead. Check the official calendar again before release day because the schedule can change.
Yes, according to the October 1 snapshot. The observed contracts close at 8:29 a.m. EST on November 6, one minute before the scheduled BLS release. Expected expiration was 10:00 a.m. EST. These are different milestones, and expected expiration does not guarantee payout timing.
The October 1 evidence shows that mismatch but does not establish its cause. The series links to PPI, while the October event links to Employment Situation and specifies payroll employment. Compare the full terms and seek Kalshi clarification if the inconsistency remains unresolved.
No. The checked source material does not verify an October payrolls forecast, consensus estimate, or reported result. The listed contract thresholds describe market structure, not expected outcomes. This guide documents the scheduled release, observed contract timing, and source checks rather than predicting the number.
Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is speculative, and you can lose money. Do your own research.