Independent trader covering Kalshi from Chicago. Ex-CME equity index futures quant, full-time on prediction markets since the US-side Polymarket block.
I'm Jake. I trade Kalshi for a living. This site is where I write down what I'm doing and why, partly because writing forces me to think clearly, and partly because the rest of the prediction-markets coverage online is either pump pieces from people who don't trade or angry Reddit posts from people who lost money on a single contract and never came back.
Neither of those is useful if you're trying to actually figure out whether Kalshi works.
I grew up in Naperville, ended up at U of Chicago for econ, and walked across the street into a CME equity index futures desk after graduation. Spent a few years there doing what most quants on a futures desk do: building short-term models around the open and the close, watching ES roll, and getting humbled by every Fed minutes release that came in three words different from what we expected.
Two years ago a friend pointed me at Polymarket during the 2024 primaries. The election odds were obviously mispriced relative to my read of the polling cross-tabs, and the markets were thin enough that you could actually move them. I took a small position, won it, took a bigger one, won that too. Then took a third one, lost it. Standard arc.
The interesting part wasn't the P&L. It was that the inefficiencies in event contracts dwarf anything you'll find on a regulated futures exchange. CME index futures are priced by ten thousand algos to four decimal places. A Kalshi market on whether Powell says the word "patient" in his press conference is priced by maybe forty people in a chat group, half of whom are eyeballing it.
Polymarket geofenced US users in late 2024 after the CFTC settlement. I tried to keep trading there through a VPN for about a week before deciding it was stupid. KYC paths back into Polymarket from a US passport were closed, and the platform had become a regulatory headache I didn't want.
Kalshi was the obvious move. It's the only major prediction market exchange the CFTC has actually licensed, your money sits in segregated accounts, and they got the legal fight over election contracts done in court rather than dodging it. Liquidity is thinner than Polymarket on some markets, but for US macro and elections it's now better than Polymarket because all the US-based action consolidated there.
Not paid by them. I'm a customer. They probably don't love this site existing because I'm honest about which contracts have garbage liquidity and where the fees actually bite.
Hands-on reviews, market structure breakdowns, and trade-by-trade commentary. Some of it is evergreen (how fees work, how settlement works). Some of it is timely (what's the implied probability on the next FOMC, what the election odds are doing this week).
I publish a longer piece on the blog roughly once a day, and I run a Telegram channel where I drop the shorter takes and screenshots of positions when I think they're interesting.
The blog is the long-form work. The Telegram channel is where I post quick reads, screenshots, and the trades I'm sizing up in real time.
Join @Kalshi_marketI don't sell signals. I don't run a Discord with tiers. There is no premium content. If someone messages you on Telegram pretending to be me and offers to "manage your account" or sell you picks, that's a scam, every time, no exceptions.
I also don't have a position on whether you should trade. Most people who try active trading lose money. Prediction markets are no different. Read what I write as one trader's notes, not as a recommendation. You can lose every dollar you put on Kalshi. This is not financial advice.
Best way to reach me is the discussion chat at @Kalshi_chat. I read every message. I don't always reply fast.