Real photograph by Shawn T. Moore / U.S. Department of Labor / Wikimedia Commons, used unmodified under CC BY 2.0. No affiliation or endorsement is implied.
mutually_exclusive was falseThe event ticker, month, and report name all matter. A jobs headline for another month, a private payroll estimate, the unemployment rate, or a later commentary article is not the named measure. Save the live rule text and timestamps before entering.
The Employment Situation combines two surveys. The establishment survey, also called Current Employment Statistics, measures payroll jobs at businesses and government agencies. The household survey measures people and is the source of the unemployment rate. The reviewed KXPAYROLLS wording pointed to total nonfarm payroll employment, so the establishment-survey headline is the relevant number.
| Release item | Survey basis | Same as reviewed contract? |
|---|---|---|
| Total nonfarm payroll employment change | Establishment survey | Yes, for the named month |
| Unemployment rate | Household survey | No |
| Number of employed people | Household survey | No |
| Private payroll estimate | Non-BLS source | No; context only |
BLS also warns against treating payroll jobs as a count of unique employed people. A person holding two payroll jobs can be counted twice in the establishment survey, while self-employed workers, private household workers, and most agricultural workers are outside the nonfarm payroll definition.
BLS labels the first monthly payroll estimate preliminary. It issues a second preliminary estimate in the next month's report and a final sample-based estimate one month later. Benchmark revisions can make further historical changes. These vintages help interpret the labor market, but they are not interchangeable settlement inputs.
If a contract asks whether payroll employment increased by above 100,000, an official increase of exactly 100,000 does not satisfy the reviewed greater-than wording.
A result of 101,000 is above the threshold. Do not silently interpret “above” as “at least,” and do not round a private estimate into the official BLS value.
The reviewed event offered multiple “above” contracts. If the official payroll increase is high enough, several conditions can be true at once. That is different from a set of exclusive ranges where only one contract can win.
Consistent cumulative probabilities can still imply a range probability. Suppose one model gives a 62% chance of payrolls above 75,000 and a 37% chance of payrolls above 100,000:
This subtraction only works when both probabilities come from the same coherent model and timestamp. Two asks include spread and depth; two last trades may be stale. Neither pair is automatically a clean probability distribution.
Close time, release time, expected expiration, final determination, and payout are separate states. A famous 8:30 release does not mean orders remain tradable through the publication second or that payout occurs instantly.
Suppose a hypothetical 120-contract YES order crosses two ask levels:
| Ask | Quantity | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| $0.43 | 50 | $21.50 |
| $0.48 | 70 | $33.60 |
| Total | 120 | $55.10 |
If an independent estimate gives the exact threshold a 51% probability:
The 43-cent top ask is not the full-order price. Applicable fees raise break-even above 45.92%. A winning purchased position has a $120 gross settlement value; a losing position risks the $55.10 purchase cost plus applicable fees. Use the slippage calculator and payout calculator with current inputs.
Jobless claims, business surveys, private payroll estimates, layoff announcements, and prior-month revisions can inform a forecast. They do not replace the official BLS measure named in the contract. A model should also match the contract month and definition; private payrolls alone do not equal total nonfarm payroll employment.
Forecast uncertainty is not removed by a binary payoff. Separate the probability estimate from execution: first estimate the exact event, then compare it with the full-order price and fees, and finally size for a complete loss.
The November 2026 rules snapshot reviewed July 17, 2026 used the increase in total nonfarm payroll employment reported in BLS's Monthly Employment Situation Report for the named month. It did not use the unemployment rate or the number of employed people.
No. Total nonfarm payroll employment comes from BLS's establishment survey and counts payroll jobs. The unemployment rate comes from the household survey and measures people. Read the contract's exact measure.
No when the rule says above 100,000. The reviewed KXPAYROLLS wording used a strict greater-than condition, so equality is on the No side. The live rule text controls.
The reviewed November 2026 KXPAYROLLS event listed an 8:29 AM ET close on December 4, one minute before BLS's scheduled 8:30 AM Employment Situation release. Future timestamps can differ, so verify the live event.
The reviewed event's timestamps and wording point to the named monthly report released on the scheduled release day, while BLS revises initial estimates in the next two reports. Do not substitute a later revision for the named report; the live rules and official determination control.
No for the reviewed event. Its above-threshold contracts overlapped and the public API marked the event as not mutually exclusive. A high enough payroll increase can make several Yes contracts win.