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Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? Kalshi Odds

Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXCABOUT-26MAY22

As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Hegseth at 16%, followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 15%, Chris Wright at 13%. 207.5K contracts have traded, 2.6K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeChance24h changeVolumeOpen interest
Pete Hegseth16%
-1 pts58.0K28.2K
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.15%
·27.2K11.9K
Chris Wright13%
+8 pts8.5K6.3K
Howard Lutnick11%
-1 pts9.8K5.5K
Scott Bessent9.5%
-1 pts7.1K5.9K
Susie Wiles8.0%
-1 pts14.4K6.3K
Markwayne Mullin6.5%
·22.0K11.3K
Brooke Rollins5.5%
·7.0K5.9K
Doug Burgum4.5%
·7.0K4.3K
Marco Rubio3.5%
-1 pts8.4K4.1K
Linda McMahon3.5%
·4.4K2.9K
Doug Collins2.5%
+1 pts4.6K3.9K
Sean Duffy2.5%
·4.3K3.7K
Kelly Loeffler1.5%
+1 pts3.8K2.3K
Jamieson Greer1.5%
+1 pts3.5K2.6K
Michael Kratsios1.5%
+1 pts3.1K2.3K
Lee Zeldin1.5%
·3.1K2.4K
Mike Waltz1.5%
+1 pts2.5K2.4K
John Ratcliffe1.0%
·5.0K3.2K
Scott Turner1.0%
·2.6K1.7K

1 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

0%25%50%75%100%Aug 26Sep 24

Pete Hegseth Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Chris Wright · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If Marco Rubio is the first member of the Cabinet of Donald Trump to leave or announce they will leave (such as by quitting, being fired, or being impeached) after May 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two persons announce they intend to leave at the same time, then the one who leaves first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. If multiple persons both announce they intend to leave and leave at the same time as other members, then the one whose last name is alphabetically first will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No. A leave of absence does not constitute leaving the position. For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President’s Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United …”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Pete Hegseth at 16%, followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 15%, Chris Wright at 13%. 207.5K contracts have traded, 2.6K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next market close?

The listed close date is January 20, 2029. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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