Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC · Category: Elections · Event CONTROLH-2026
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 92%, followed by Republican Party at 8.3%. 36.0M contracts have traded, 982.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 92% | +1 pts | 13.2M | 8.7M |
| Republican Party | 8.3% | -1 pts | 22.8M | 14.5M |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Democratic Party ■ Republican Party · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may be determined early based on a consensus of media calls projecting control of the U.S. House. See full rules for details. Otherwise, victory will be determined by the party identification of the Speaker of the House on February 1, 2027.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 04:37 UTC, the leading outcome is Democratic Party at 92%, followed by Republican Party at 8.3%. 36.0M contracts have traded, 982.0K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is February 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/which-party-will-win-the-u-s-house/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Which party will win the U.S. House? Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/which-party-will-win-the-u-s-house/">Which party will win the U.S. House? odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
/api/v1/markets/which-party-will-win-the-u-s-house.json (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link).