Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18): Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 15, 2026 at 16:28 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY-26OCT18
As of October 15, 2026 at 16:28 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 150 at 94%, followed by Above 160 at 82%, Above 170 at 78%. 68.5K contracts have traded, 32.8K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Above 150 ■ Above 160 ■ Above 170 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 150 from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Oct 12, 2026 to Oct 18, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18)?
As of October 15, 2026 at 16:28 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 150 at 94%, followed by Above 160 at 82%, Above 170 at 78%. 68.5K contracts have traded, 32.8K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) market close?
The listed close date is October 20, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-10-12-10-18/">Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18) odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18): Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 15). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 15, 2026 at 16:28 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-10-12-10-18/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketstrafficthroughthebabelmandebstrait10121018, title = {Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/12 - 10/18): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-15 16:28 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-bab-el-mandeb-strait-10-12-10-18/}}
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
