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Oscar nominees: Best Picture: Kalshi Odds

Snapshot October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Entertainment · Event KXOSCARNOMPIC-27

As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is The Odyssey at 98%, followed by The Black Ball at 95%, Wild Horse Nine at 93%. 1.2M contracts have traded, 7.5K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeChance24h changeVolumeOpen interest
The Odyssey98%
+2 pts144.1K56.2K
The Black Ball95%
+3 pts22.9K10.1K
Wild Horse Nine93%
+8 pts52.5K18.9K
Project Hail Mary86%
·171.3K66.4K
The Debut82%
+4 pts12.6K7.5K
Dune: Part Three80%
+1 pts19.0K9.8K
The Invite63%
+1 pts32.9K20.4K
Artificial58%
+10 pts21.4K11.3K
You Can See Everything48%
·46.2K36.7K
Fjord46%
-6 pts41.8K19.3K
I Play Rocky42%
-3 pts28.4K13.4K
Obsession36%
-9 pts102.0K49.1K
Club Kid36%
-1 pts24.8K16.9K
All of a Sudden34%
-2 pts17.7K9.5K
Elsinore26%
·11.1K2.8K
Behemoth25%
-1 pts17.1K6.3K
Digger22%
+2 pts71.9K28.7K
Possible Love17%
·17.9K5.7K
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth16%
·18.4K10.0K
Being Heumann14%
-6 pts14.7K6.3K

33 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 11Oct 10

■ The Odyssey ■ The Black Ball ■ Wild Horse Nine · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If The Odyssey has been nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.

Related Entertainment markets

More on this topic: Oscars odds on Kalshi

Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Oscar nominees: Best Picture?

As of October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is The Odyssey at 98%, followed by The Black Ball at 95%, Wild Horse Nine at 93%. 1.2M contracts have traded, 7.5K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Oscar nominees: Best Picture market close?

The listed close date is December 31, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Free JSON

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APA

Oscar nominees: Best Picture: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 10). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/oscar-nominees-best-picture/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketsoscarnomineesbestpicture, title = {Oscar nominees: Best Picture: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-10 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/oscar-nominees-best-picture/}}

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