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Oscar nominees: Best Director: Kalshi Odds

Snapshot October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Entertainment · Event KXOSCARNOMDIR-27

As of October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Christopher Nolan at 95%, followed by Javier Calvo at 83%, Martin McDonagh at 68%. 99.9K contracts have traded, 521 in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeChance24h changeVolumeOpen interest
Christopher Nolan95%
·11.5K3.5K
Javier Calvo83%
-4 pts3.0K2.1K
Martin McDonagh68%
-1 pts7.7K3.6K
Denis Villeneuve62%
·10.2K4.5K
Olivia Wilde54%
+7 pts11.2K7.0K
Cristian Mungiu34%
·4.4K2.5K
Ryusuke Hamaguchi31%
·1.9K1.2K
Christopher Miller27%
·1.8K888
Jesse Eisenberg18%
·6.3K2.2K
David Fincher18%
·2.7K1.0K
Alejandro González Iñárritu15%
-2 pts8.1K3.9K
Mike Leigh15%
·298288
Phil Lord14%
·2.8K2.2K
Curry Barker11%
-10 pts7.8K4.7K
Tony Gilroy7.0%
·1.5K671
Danny Boyle7.0%
·1.9K446
Steven Spielberg6.5%
·8.2K4.1K
Nathan Fielder6.5%
·00
Beth de Araujo5.0%
·255255
Paweł Pawlikowski4.5%
·1.1K323

7 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Oct 5

■ Christopher Nolan ■ Javier Calvo ■ Martin McDonagh · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If Phil Lord has been nominated for Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.

Related Entertainment markets

More on this topic: Oscars odds on Kalshi

Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Oscar nominees: Best Director?

As of October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Christopher Nolan at 95%, followed by Javier Calvo at 83%, Martin McDonagh at 68%. 99.9K contracts have traded, 521 in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Oscar nominees: Best Director market close?

The listed close date is December 31, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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APA

Oscar nominees: Best Director: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 5). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/oscar-nominees-best-director/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketsoscarnomineesbestdirector, title = {Oscar nominees: Best Director: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-05 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/oscar-nominees-best-director/}}

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