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Oscar nominees: Best Actor: Kalshi Odds

Snapshot October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Entertainment · Event KXOSCARNOMACTO-27

As of October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is John Malkovich at 93%, followed by Matt Damon at 92%, Andrew Scott at 84%. 412.8K contracts have traded, 4.6K in the last 24 hours.

Current odds

OutcomeChance24h changeVolumeOpen interest
John Malkovich93%
·17.1K8.9K
Matt Damon92%
+1 pts32.7K14.6K
Andrew Scott84%
-3 pts27.1K13.1K
Robert Pattinson59%
·38.2K16.3K
Ryan Gosling52%
-2 pts49.7K26.4K
Anthony Ippolito45%
-4 pts8.8K5.7K
Tom Cruise42%
+1 pts58.7K25.6K
John Turturro30%
+3 pts9.5K4.9K
Pedro Pascal24%
+1 pts35.6K10.9K
Timothée Chalamet20%
-5 pts21.6K11.5K
Mahershala Ali16%
-1 pts3.0K2.3K
Sebastian Stan15%
-2 pts16.1K9.1K
Jaafar Jackson15%
+5 pts33.4K21.6K
Jeremy Strong12%
-1 pts15.1K9.3K
Andrew Garfield11%
·6.3K5.2K
Adam Scott10%
·2.1K1.8K
Guy Pearce10%
·176176
Brad Pitt8.0%
+8 pts4.3K3.8K
Channing Tatum7.0%
·2.8K2.2K
Javier Bardem6.5%
·3.1K1.7K

13 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

0%25%50%75%100%Sep 6Oct 5

■ John Malkovich ■ Matt Damon ■ Andrew Scott · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If John Malkovich has been nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes. The 99th Academy Awards Nominations are expected to be announced in January 2027. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Oscars. Any references to Oscars, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Oscars and Kalshi.”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.

Related Entertainment markets

More on this topic: Oscars odds on Kalshi

Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Oscar nominees: Best Actor?

As of October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is John Malkovich at 93%, followed by Matt Damon at 92%, Andrew Scott at 84%. 412.8K contracts have traded, 4.6K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Oscar nominees: Best Actor market close?

The listed close date is December 31, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Free JSON

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APA

Oscar nominees: Best Actor: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 5). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 5, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/oscar-nominees-best-actor/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketsoscarnomineesbestactor, title = {Oscar nominees: Best Actor: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-05 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/oscar-nominees-best-actor/}}

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