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How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 1, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Financials · Event KX2YRDIRLM-26OCT30L
As of October 1, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.77% or below at 79%, followed by 4.76% or below at 77%, 4.75% or below at 76%. 25.8K contracts have traded, 25.8K in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| 4.77% or below | 79% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.76% or below | 77% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.75% or below | 76% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.74% or below | 74% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.73% or below | 72% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.72% or below | 70% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.71% or below | 68% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.7% or below | 66% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.69% or below | 64% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.68% or below | 62% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.67% or below | 60% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.66% or below | 58% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.65% or below | 56% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.64% or below | 55% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.63% or below | 53% | · | 0 | 0 |
| 4.62% or below | 52% | · | 0 | 0 |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the daily published par yield for the 2-year U.S. Treasury is below 4.78% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 2-year generic constant-maturity tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. Revisions to the Underlying made after Expiration will not be accounted for in determining the Expiration Value. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire at 10:00 AM ET on the calendar day after the final day of the period. If an Expiration Value cannot be determined, the Contract is subject to Rule 7.1 of the …”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
As of October 1, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is 4.77% or below at 79%, followed by 4.76% or below at 77%, 4.75% or below at 76%. 25.8K contracts have traded, 25.8K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026 market close?
The listed close date is October 30, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 1). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 1, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-low-will-the-2-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-oct-2026/
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@misc{kalshiview2026marketshowlowwillthe2yearustreasuryyieldgetinoct2026, title = {How low will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-01 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/how-low-will-the-2-year-us-treasury-yield-get-in-oct-2026/}}HTML credit
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