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Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? Kalshi Odds
Settled or closed · Category: Politics · Event KXGOVTSHUTDOWN-26OCT01
This event has no open markets at the last update (October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC).
Result
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the United States federal government is at least partially shut down due to a lapse of appropriations at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. A shutdown is defined as the government's orderly suspension of agency work that is not legally excepted, typically accompanied by furloughing the employees who perform that work, when funding is unavailable. Examples that would resolve the market to Yes: OMB releases a formal directive that orders heads of the affected agencies to "execute plans for an orderly shutdown," which is in effect as of 10:00 AM ET on Oct 1, 2026 OPM posts a current operating status that indicates that "due to a partial lapse in appropriations, Federal Government operations vary by agency" Examples that would NOT resolve the market to Yes: A technical lapse in appropriations occurs, but OMB directs agencies to continue standard operations …”
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Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
This event has no open markets at the last update (October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC).
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026 market close?
The listed close date is not listed. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 10). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 10, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/government-shutdown-on-oct-1-2026/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsgovernmentshutdownonoct12026, title = {Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-10 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/government-shutdown-on-oct-1-2026/}}HTML credit
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