Kalshi odds today › Politics
2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner: Kalshi Odds
Snapshot October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXNOBELPEACE-26
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is David Attenborough at 50%, followed by Hussam Abu Safiya at 50%, UNHCR at 50%. 4.6M contracts have traded, 1.1M in the last 24 hours.
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|
| David Attenborough | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Hussam Abu Safiya | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| UNHCR | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Ilham Tohti | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Julian Assange | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Lai | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| António Guterres | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| World Central Kitchen / José Andrés | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Daria Egereva | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Aaja Chemnitz | 50% | · | 0 | 0 |
| Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms | 16% | +1 pts | 244.8K | 129.9K |
| Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine | 9.5% | +1 pts | 62.4K | 51.2K |
| Save the Children | 7.5% | · | 44.8K | 20.5K |
| Yulia Navalnaya | 5.5% | +2 pts | 76.8K | 58.6K |
| International Court of Justice (ICJ) | 4.5% | +1 pts | 89.1K | 61.7K |
| Shehbaz Sharif | 2.9% | +1 pts | 51.5K | 36.4K |
| Doctors Without Borders | 2.5% | -1 pts | 68.6K | 31.6K |
| Committee to Protect Journalists | 2.5% | -1 pts | 29.1K | 17.0K |
| Mark Carney | 2.1% | +1 pts | 150.5K | 106.2K |
30 lower-priced outcomes are in the JSON data.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If Donald Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market and these products have not been endorsed by the Nobel Foundation. Any references to the Nobel Foundation or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between the Nobel Foundation and Kalshi.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.
Related Politics markets
Frequently asked questions
What are the Kalshi odds for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner?
As of October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is David Attenborough at 50%, followed by Hussam Abu Safiya at 50%, UNHCR at 50%. 4.6M contracts have traded, 1.1M in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner market close?
The listed close dates range from December 31, 2026 to January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
Use this data
Embed these odds
Paste on your site or newsletter; it updates with this page.
<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/2026-nobel-peace-prize-winner/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kalshi odds"></iframe>
<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-nobel-peace-prize-winner/">2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
Image badge for READMEs, forums and newsletters that block iframes (HTML or Markdown): 
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-nobel-peace-prize-winner/"><img src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/2026-nobel-peace-prize-winner/badge.svg" alt="2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner Kalshi odds" height="20"></a>
[](https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-nobel-peace-prize-winner/)
Cite this page
APA
2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner: Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 8). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 8, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-nobel-peace-prize-winner/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026markets2026nobelpeaceprizewinner, title = {2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner: Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-08 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-nobel-peace-prize-winner/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/2026-nobel-peace-prize-winner/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
CC BY 4.0: keep a visible link to this page. More formats: how to cite and reuse Kalshi View.
Follow on Telegram
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.