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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Kalshi Odds

Settled or closed · Category: Politics · Event KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26OCT04

This event has no open markets at the last update (October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC). Kalshi lists Above 10, Above 15 as settled Yes.

Result

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

How this market settles

Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:

“If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.”

Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees, the fee calculator, the payout calculator and the APY calculator.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the Kalshi odds for Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)?

This event has no open markets at the last update (October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC). Kalshi lists Above 10, Above 15 as settled Yes.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) market close?

The listed close date is not listed. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

Use this data

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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-28-10-4/">Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>

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Free JSON

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Cite this page

APA

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 6). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 6, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-28-10-4/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketstrafficthroughthestraitofhormuz928104, title = {Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-06 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-28-10-4/}}

HTML credit

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