Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Kalshi Odds
Snapshot September 29, 2026 at 23:20 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26OCT04
As of September 29, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 10 at 96%, followed by Above 15 at 94%, Above 20 at 79%. 65.4K contracts have traded, 23.7K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Above 10 ■ Above 15 ■ Above 20 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)?
As of September 29, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 10 at 96%, followed by Above 15 at 94%, Above 20 at 79%. 65.4K contracts have traded, 23.7K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) market close?
The listed close date is October 6, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-28-10-4/">Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 29). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 29, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-28-10-4/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketstrafficthroughthestraitofhormuz928104, title = {Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-29 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-28-10-4/}}
