Snapshot September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXHORMUZWEEKLY-26SEP27
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 10 at 96%, followed by Above 15 at 94%, Above 20 at 72%. 154.3K contracts have traded, 52.0K in the last 24 hours.
| Outcome | Chance | 24h change | Volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10 | 96% | -1 pts | 23.0K | 12.9K |
| Above 15 | 94% | +2 pts | 24.0K | 11.0K |
| Above 20 | 72% | -5 pts | 10.8K | 3.5K |
| Above 25 | 24% | -7 pts | 8.3K | 3.6K |
| Above 30 | 9.5% | -6 pts | 19.0K | 8.0K |
| Above 35 | 2.5% | -6 pts | 11.8K | 7.5K |
| Above 45 | 2.5% | -2 pts | 9.7K | 5.3K |
| Above 40 | 2.5% | -3 pts | 5.7K | 3.9K |
| Above 75 | 1.5% | · | 26.4K | 9.5K |
| Above 50 | 1.5% | -2 pts | 10.0K | 5.4K |
| Above 100 | 1.5% | · | 5.7K | 3.9K |
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
■ Above 10 ■ Above 15 ■ Above 20 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The total is calculated by summing daily counts from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.”
Read the full rules and trade on Kalshi: open this market on Kalshi. How settlement works in general: Kalshi settlement guide. Costs: Kalshi fees and the payout calculator.
As of September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 10 at 96%, followed by Above 15 at 94%, Above 20 at 72%. 154.3K contracts have traded, 52.0K in the last 24 hours.
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
The listed close date is September 29, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<iframe src="https://kalshiview.com/embed/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-21-9-27/" width="100%" height="300" style="border:0;max-width:560px" loading="lazy" title="Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27) Kalshi odds"></iframe> <p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-21-9-27/">Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27) odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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APA
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27): Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 24). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 24, 2026 at 11:56 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-21-9-27/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketstrafficthroughthestraitofhormuz921927, title = {Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/21 - 9/27): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-24 11:56 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-21-9-27/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-21-9-27/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
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