Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Kalshi Odds
Snapshot September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC · Category: Politics · Event KXHORMUZPEAK-26OCT04
As of September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 4 at 92%, followed by Above 6 at 60%, Above 8 at 16%. 41.8K contracts have traded, 27.9K in the last 24 hours.
Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.
Last 30 days
■ Above 4 ■ Above 6 ■ Above 8 · daily closing prices from Kalshi's public candlestick data
How this market settles
Excerpt of the contract rules from Kalshi's public market data:
“If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 4 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The Expiration Value is determined by identifying the highest single-day count from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026. The market will resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, once complete data is available.”
What are the Kalshi odds for Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)?
As of September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Above 4 at 92%, followed by Above 6 at 60%, Above 8 at 16%. 41.8K contracts have traded, 27.9K in the last 24 hours.
How are these Kalshi odds calculated?
Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.
When does the Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) market close?
The listed close date is October 6, 2026. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.
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<p><a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/peak-traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-28-10-4/">Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) odds</a> via <a href="https://kalshiview.com/">Kalshi View</a></p>
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Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Kalshi Odds. (2026, September 30). Kalshi View. Retrieved September 30, 2026 at 15:25 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/peak-traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-28-10-4/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketspeaktrafficthroughthestraitofhormuz928104, title = {Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4): Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Sep}, note = {Snapshot 2026-09-30 15:25 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/peak-traffic-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-9-28-10-4/}}
Daily Kalshi market checks, results and settlement coverage are posted in the @Kalshi_market channel on Telegram. It is a coverage feed, not a per-market alert service.
