Kalshi macro event-contract rules matrix
What this is: Dated comparison of six reviewed Kalshi macro contract families. This is a rules reference, not a live price feed. The matrix records definitions and timing only. It does not contain odds, recommendations or live-liquidity claims.
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| Family and snapshot | Statistic and period | Precision and condition | ET timeline | Sources and notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly CPI Generic Kalshi CPI terms Reviewed 2026-07-17 | Signed one-month percent change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U Reference month named by the live event; Seasonally adjusted monthly change | One decimal as published by BLS Strictly greater than the strike Equality: No | Close 08:29 Release 08:30 08:31 AM ET in the reviewed generic terms | Kalshi rules · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · worked guide A CPI YoY event can use a different 12-month, not-seasonally-adjusted measure. |
| Monthly Core PCE KXPCECORE-26JUN Reviewed 2026-07-17 | Month-over-month PCE Price Index excluding food and energy June 2026 reference month; Monthly core PCE measure named by the event | Single-decimal BEA value Strictly greater than the strike Equality: No | Close 08:25 Release 08:30 Sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET after release or one week after the expected release | Kalshi rules · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · worked guide Monthly Core PCE is not Core CPI. The Federal Reserve's formal 2% objective is the annual change in headline PCE. |
| Quarterly real GDP KXGDP-26JUL30 Reviewed 2026-07-17 | Real GDP growth, seasonally adjusted and annualized Q2 2026 BEA Advance Estimate; Seasonally adjusted annual rate | One-decimal BEA value Strictly greater than the strike; thresholds overlap Equality: No | Close 08:29 Release 08:30 First 10:00 AM ET after release or three months after the expected release date | Kalshi rules · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · worked guide The reviewed thresholds are cumulative, not mutually exclusive brackets. Second and third BEA estimates are later vintages. |
| Monthly nonfarm payrolls KXPAYROLLS-26NOV Reviewed 2026-07-17 | Increase in total nonfarm payroll employment November 2026 Monthly Employment Situation Report; Headline establishment-survey payroll change reported by BLS | Reported payroll-job change compared with the whole-job strike Strictly greater than the strike; thresholds overlap Equality: No | Close 08:29 Release 08:30 Expected 10:00 AM ET on release day, with a three-month fallback timestamp | Kalshi rules · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · worked guide The reviewed thresholds are cumulative, not mutually exclusive brackets. Payroll jobs from the establishment survey are not the household-survey unemployment rate. |
| Monthly U-3 unemployment KXU3-26JUL Reviewed 2026-07-17 | Seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate July 2026 Employment Situation Report; Household-survey rate as a percentage of the civilian labor force | One-decimal BLS value Strictly greater than the strike; thresholds overlap Equality: No | Close 08:29 Release 08:30 Expected 10:00 AM ET on release day; API fallback timestamp 2026-11-06T14:00:00Z | Kalshi rules · U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics · worked guide U-3 comes from the household survey and is not payroll-job growth or U-6. The reviewed terms exclude revisions made after expiration. |
| FOMC target-rate decision Generic Kalshi FEDDECISION terms Reviewed 2026-07-17 | FOMC action on the target federal funds rate range Meeting named by the live event; Change from the pre-meeting target range | Basis-point action defined by the exact strike Event-specific action criterion; map the exact target-range change Equality: Depends on the exact strike wording | Close 13:55 Release 14:00 14:05 ET in the reviewed generic terms | Kalshi rules · Federal Reserve System · worked guide The scheduled statement follows the reviewed close. The later press conference and minutes do not replace the decision source. |
Method
- Transcribe the exact statistic, period, adjustment, precision, operator, close time, release time, expiration rule and official source from the reviewed Kalshi terms or public event record.
- Verify the statistical definition and schedule against the named government source.
- Do not infer current market availability, price, probability or liquidity from this matrix.
- Recheck the live contract because a later event or terms version can differ.
Limits
- The matrix freezes reviewed rule snapshots and does not prove that any event remains open.
- It contains no market prices, probability estimates, volume, open interest or liquidity ranking.
- The linked Kalshi rules and the official source control if this summary conflicts with a live contract.
- Release schedules and event timestamps can change.
How to cite: Kalshi View Editorial Team, “Kalshi macro event-contract rules matrix,” snapshot 2026-07-17T20:15:00Z. Link to this page for the readable version or to the JSON for structured reuse.