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mutually_exclusive was false2026-11-06T14:00:00ZEvery qualifier matters. The contract names U-3, not U-6; the seasonally adjusted value, not an unadjusted rate; and July, not the release month of August. BLS reports the U-3 rate to one decimal place. Save the live rule and timestamps before entering.
BLS defines the civilian labor force as employed plus unemployed people. To be counted as unemployed, a person generally must have no job, be available for work, and have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks; people waiting to be recalled from temporary layoff are handled under the BLS definition. U-3 is:
Someone without a job who is outside the labor force is not in the U-3 numerator or denominator. This is why labor-force participation can affect the rate even when the count of employed people also changes.
| Release item | Survey | Unit | Reviewed KXU3 input? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonally adjusted U-3 rate | Household survey | People as % of labor force | Yes |
| Total nonfarm payroll employment change | Establishment survey | Payroll jobs | No |
| U-6 labor underutilization | Household survey | Broader % measure | No |
| Labor-force participation rate | Household survey | % of civilian noninstitutional population | Context, not the named value |
The household and establishment surveys use different samples, concepts, and units. Strong payroll growth does not mechanically force U-3 lower. Use the related payrolls contract guide for KXPAYROLLS rules.
The generic U3 terms say the payout criterion is strictly greater than the percentage. Do not replace “above” with “at least.” The published one-decimal rate is the relevant display; a private reconstruction with additional decimal places does not replace the BLS report.
If July U-3 is 4.3%, then above 4.0%, above 4.1%, and above 4.2% are all true, while above 4.3% is false. The event's contracts are cumulative.
A coherent probability model can derive a one-decimal outcome probability from adjacent thresholds. If the same model gives 78% to U-3 above 4.1% and 46% to U-3 above 4.2%:
Because BLS publishes one decimal, that interval corresponds to the 4.2% outcome under the reviewed measure. Do not subtract two executable asks as if they were clean probabilities; spread and depth can make the result incoherent.
The Employment Situation is not guaranteed to arrive on the “first Friday” every month; holidays and schedule changes matter. Use the official BLS calendar. Close, release, expiration, determination, and payout remain separate states.
The generic U3 terms state that revisions to the underlying made after expiration are not accounted for in the expiration value. This is more precise than saying every economic event contract always uses an “initial release.” Another Kalshi series can define its own source, vintage, or deadline, so save the terms that govern the event actually traded.
Suppose a hypothetical 100-contract YES order crosses two ask levels. These are teaching numbers, not current quotes or claimed fills:
| Ask | Quantity | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| $0.46 | 40 | $18.40 |
| $0.51 | 60 | $30.60 |
| Total | 100 | $49.00 |
If an independent, rule-matched model assigns a 56% probability to the exact threshold:
The 46-cent top ask is not the price of the whole order. Fees raise break-even above 49%. A winning purchased position has a $100 gross settlement value; a losing position risks the $49.00 purchase cost plus applicable fees. Use the slippage calculator and payout calculator with current inputs.
The July 2026 snapshot used the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by BLS in the Employment Situation Report for the named month. U-3 is unemployed people as a percentage of the civilian labor force.
No. U-3 comes from the household survey and measures people relative to the labor force. Nonfarm payroll employment comes from the establishment survey and counts jobs. The two series can move differently.
No. The reviewed KXU3 rules used a strict greater-than condition, so a published U-3 rate of exactly 4.2% is No for above 4.2%. A published 4.3% is Yes. The live rule controls.
The public event snapshot listed an 8:29 AM ET close on August 7, 2026, one minute before the BLS calendar's scheduled 8:30 AM July Employment Situation release. Recheck future event timestamps.
The reviewed generic U3 terms state that revisions made after expiration are not used to determine the expiration value. Save the live rules because another contract family or later terms version can differ.
No. The July 2026 event used overlapping above-threshold contracts and the public API marked it not mutually exclusive. If U-3 is high enough, several Yes contracts can win.