{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "snapshot_time_utc": "2026-07-17T20:15:00Z",
  "title": "Kalshi macro event-contract rules matrix",
  "scope": "Dated comparison of six reviewed Kalshi macro contract families. This is a rules reference, not a live price feed.",
  "methodology": [
    "Transcribe the exact statistic, period, adjustment, precision, operator, close time, release time, expiration rule and official source from the reviewed Kalshi terms or public event record.",
    "Verify the statistical definition and schedule against the named government source.",
    "Do not infer current market availability, price, probability or liquidity from this matrix.",
    "Recheck the live contract because a later event or terms version can differ."
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "id": "monthly-cpi-generic-terms",
      "family": "Monthly CPI",
      "reviewed_contract": "Generic Kalshi CPI terms",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-07-17",
      "statistic": "Signed one-month percent change in seasonally adjusted CPI-U",
      "period_or_vintage": "Reference month named by the live event",
      "adjustment": "Seasonally adjusted monthly change",
      "precision": "One decimal as published by BLS",
      "operator": "Strictly greater than the strike",
      "equality_result": "No",
      "last_trading_time_et": "08:29",
      "scheduled_release_time_et": "08:30",
      "expiration_rule": "08:31 AM ET in the reviewed generic terms",
      "source_agency": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "settlement_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
      "kalshi_rule_url": "https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/CPI.pdf",
      "article_url": "https://kalshiview.com/blog/cpi-inflation-markets-on-kalshi-trade-setup/",
      "notes": "A CPI YoY event can use a different 12-month, not-seasonally-adjusted measure.",
      "evidence_urls": [
        "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/questions-and-answers.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/factsheets/cpi-math-calculations.pdf"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "core-pce-june-2026",
      "family": "Monthly Core PCE",
      "reviewed_contract": "KXPCECORE-26JUN",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-07-17",
      "statistic": "Month-over-month PCE Price Index excluding food and energy",
      "period_or_vintage": "June 2026 reference month",
      "adjustment": "Monthly core PCE measure named by the event",
      "precision": "Single-decimal BEA value",
      "operator": "Strictly greater than the strike",
      "equality_result": "No",
      "last_trading_time_et": "08:25",
      "scheduled_release_time_et": "08:30",
      "expiration_rule": "Sooner of the first 10:00 AM ET after release or one week after the expected release",
      "source_agency": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis",
      "settlement_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index",
      "kalshi_rule_url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXPCECORE-26JUN?with_nested_markets=true",
      "article_url": "https://kalshiview.com/blog/core-pce-on-kalshi-fed-inflation-gauge-trading/",
      "notes": "Monthly Core PCE is not Core CPI. The Federal Reserve's formal 2% objective is the annual change in headline PCE.",
      "evidence_urls": [
        "https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule",
        "https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/economy_14400.htm"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "real-gdp-q2-2026-advance",
      "family": "Quarterly real GDP",
      "reviewed_contract": "KXGDP-26JUL30",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-07-17",
      "statistic": "Real GDP growth, seasonally adjusted and annualized",
      "period_or_vintage": "Q2 2026 BEA Advance Estimate",
      "adjustment": "Seasonally adjusted annual rate",
      "precision": "One-decimal BEA value",
      "operator": "Strictly greater than the strike; thresholds overlap",
      "equality_result": "No",
      "last_trading_time_et": "08:29",
      "scheduled_release_time_et": "08:30",
      "expiration_rule": "First 10:00 AM ET after release or three months after the expected release date",
      "source_agency": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis",
      "settlement_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
      "kalshi_rule_url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXGDP&status=open&limit=20&with_nested_markets=true",
      "article_url": "https://kalshiview.com/blog/trading-the-gdp-print-on-kalshi-quarterly-setup/",
      "notes": "The reviewed thresholds are cumulative, not mutually exclusive brackets. Second and third BEA estimates are later vintages.",
      "evidence_urls": [
        "https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule",
        "https://www.bea.gov/news/gdp-release-additional-information",
        "https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-08/quick-guide-gdp.pdf"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nonfarm-payrolls-november-2026",
      "family": "Monthly nonfarm payrolls",
      "reviewed_contract": "KXPAYROLLS-26NOV",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-07-17",
      "statistic": "Increase in total nonfarm payroll employment",
      "period_or_vintage": "November 2026 Monthly Employment Situation Report",
      "adjustment": "Headline establishment-survey payroll change reported by BLS",
      "precision": "Reported payroll-job change compared with the whole-job strike",
      "operator": "Strictly greater than the strike; thresholds overlap",
      "equality_result": "No",
      "last_trading_time_et": "08:29",
      "scheduled_release_time_et": "08:30",
      "expiration_rule": "Expected 10:00 AM ET on release day, with a three-month fallback timestamp",
      "source_agency": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "settlement_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm",
      "kalshi_rule_url": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events?series_ticker=KXPAYROLLS&limit=20&with_nested_markets=true",
      "article_url": "https://kalshiview.com/blog/jobs-report-nfp-kalshi-markets-how-to-trade-payrolls/",
      "notes": "The reviewed thresholds are cumulative, not mutually exclusive brackets. Payroll jobs from the establishment survey are not the household-survey unemployment rate.",
      "evidence_urls": [
        "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/ces/concepts.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/bls/empsitquickguide.htm"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "u3-unemployment-july-2026",
      "family": "Monthly U-3 unemployment",
      "reviewed_contract": "KXU3-26JUL",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-07-17",
      "statistic": "Seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate",
      "period_or_vintage": "July 2026 Employment Situation Report",
      "adjustment": "Household-survey rate as a percentage of the civilian labor force",
      "precision": "One-decimal BLS value",
      "operator": "Strictly greater than the strike; thresholds overlap",
      "equality_result": "No",
      "last_trading_time_et": "08:29",
      "scheduled_release_time_et": "08:30",
      "expiration_rule": "Expected 10:00 AM ET on release day; API fallback timestamp 2026-11-06T14:00:00Z",
      "source_agency": "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics",
      "settlement_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm",
      "kalshi_rule_url": "https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/U3.pdf",
      "article_url": "https://kalshiview.com/blog/unemployment-rate-markets-on-kalshi-how-to-position/",
      "notes": "U-3 comes from the household survey and is not payroll-job growth or U-6. The reviewed terms exclude revisions made after expiration.",
      "evidence_urls": [
        "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXU3-26JUL?with_nested_markets=true",
        "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm",
        "https://www.bls.gov/bls/empsitquickguide.htm"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "fomc-feddecision-generic-terms",
      "family": "FOMC target-rate decision",
      "reviewed_contract": "Generic Kalshi FEDDECISION terms",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-07-17",
      "statistic": "FOMC action on the target federal funds rate range",
      "period_or_vintage": "Meeting named by the live event",
      "adjustment": "Change from the pre-meeting target range",
      "precision": "Basis-point action defined by the exact strike",
      "operator": "Event-specific action criterion; map the exact target-range change",
      "equality_result": "Depends on the exact strike wording",
      "last_trading_time_et": "13:55",
      "scheduled_release_time_et": "14:00",
      "expiration_rule": "14:05 ET in the reviewed generic terms",
      "source_agency": "Federal Reserve System",
      "settlement_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/2026-press-fomc.htm",
      "kalshi_rule_url": "https://kalshi-public-docs.s3.amazonaws.com/contract_terms/FEDDECISION.pdf",
      "article_url": "https://kalshiview.com/blog/trading-fomc-meeting-kalshi-pre-game-plan/",
      "notes": "The scheduled statement follows the reviewed close. The later press conference and minutes do not replace the decision source.",
      "evidence_urls": [
        "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
        "https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-information/quikstrike/cme-fedwatch-tool-user-guide.html"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "The matrix freezes reviewed rule snapshots and does not prove that any event remains open.",
    "It contains no market prices, probability estimates, volume, open interest or liquidity ranking.",
    "The linked Kalshi rules and the official source control if this summary conflicts with a live contract.",
    "Release schedules and event timestamps can change."
  ]
}