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The label "CPI market" is not enough to identify the payoff. The generic CPI PDF and a reviewed KXCPIYOY page use different periods and adjustment conventions.
| Field | Generic CPI terms | Reviewed CPI YoY market example |
|---|---|---|
| Period | Signed one-month percent change | Twelve months ending in the named month |
| Series | CPI-U, all items | CPI increase over the named 12-month period |
| Adjustment | Seasonally adjusted | The reviewed page referenced the one-decimal BLS 12-month value, which BLS reports not seasonally adjusted |
| Precision | One-decimal published percent change | One-decimal published percent change in the reviewed rule |
| Threshold | Strictly greater than the listed percent | "More than" the listed percent in the reviewed directional market |
BLS describes CPI-U for the U.S. city average as the broadest CPI commonly reported. It publishes both seasonally adjusted and not-seasonally-adjusted data, plus all-items-less-food-and-energy series. Do not replace the contract's named series with "core CPI," a consensus estimate, a private nowcast, or another time period.
BLS publishes CPI index levels to three decimal places, but its CPI math guide says resulting percent changes continue to be published to one decimal place. The reviewed generic contract explicitly names the signed one-month, one-decimal published change.
A calculation from raw three-decimal index values could produce an unrounded figure different from the displayed one-decimal change. Settlement follows the source value and precision named in the rules, not a trader's private recalculation.
The BLS schedule can change. Government shutdowns and other disruptions can cause revised release dates, and live Kalshi rules can include delay contingencies. Recheck both pages rather than copying a date from an old calendar.
Suppose a 100-contract YES order must take two ask levels:
| Ask | Quantity | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| $0.46 | 40 | $18.40 |
| $0.51 | 60 | $30.60 |
| Total | 100 | $49.00 |
If the independently estimated probability for the exact strike is 54%, gross expected value is:
The first ask was 46 cents, but the full-size pre-fee break-even is 49%. Current fees raise it further. If Yes wins, 100 contracts have a $100 gross settlement value. If Yes loses, the $49 purchase cost plus applicable fees is at risk. Use the slippage calculator and payout calculator with live book and fee inputs.
Directional CPI markets can list several "above" thresholds. In a coherent probability model, higher thresholds should not have higher probabilities than lower thresholds. The difference between adjacent cumulative probabilities represents the interval between them.
For example, if a fair-value estimate gives 70% for CPI above 0.2% and 42% for CPI above 0.3%, then:
Do not mechanically subtract two executable asks or two stale last trades and call the result a probability. Spread, fees, non-synchronous timestamps, and limited depth can distort the ladder. Use consistently timed fair-value estimates, then price each actual order separately.
Forecasts can inform a probability estimate. They do not replace the BLS source value specified by the contract.
The CPI terms reviewed July 17, 2026 define the underlying as the signed one-month, one-decimal percent change in the seasonally adjusted CPI-U published by BLS. A CPI YoY market can use a different 12-month, not-seasonally-adjusted measure, so the live strike and rules must be checked.
The CPI terms reviewed July 17, 2026 list 8:29 AM ET as the last trading time and 8:31 AM ET as expiration. BLS schedules CPI releases for 8:30 AM ET. Verify the current market rules because dates and contingencies can change.
No under a strictly-greater-than payout criterion. If the official one-decimal BLS value is exactly 0.3%, a strike requiring more than 0.3% resolves No. The exact live market wording controls.
Use the value and precision named by the contract. BLS publishes indexes to three decimal places but resulting percent changes to one decimal place, and the reviewed generic contract explicitly uses the published one-decimal monthly change. A private recalculation is not a substitute for the contract's source value.
No. The reviewed CPI terms cover a signed one-month seasonally adjusted change. A reviewed KXCPIYOY market page used the 12-month change ending in a named month, represented by the one-decimal BLS value. They measure different periods and can use different seasonal-adjustment conventions.
Walk enough ask levels to fill the complete quantity, divide total cost by contracts for the entry VWAP, then add applicable fees per contract. Compare that fee-adjusted break-even only with an estimate for the exact contract outcome and threshold.
Educational information only, not financial advice. Event contracts are speculative and can lose the full amount paid. Verify the live rules, BLS source, order book, and fees before trading.
