Kalshi odds today › Accuracy study
Sample collected October 3, 2026 · re-collected weekly · 1,815 settled markets · method and free data below
Across 1,815 settled Kalshi markets from 346 events that closed between October 5, 2025 and October 2, 2026, the gap between the price 7 days before close and the share of markets that resolved Yes was within normal sampling noise in 6 of 10 price bands (outside it, 0 to 10%: 3.8% resolved Yes against an average price of 2.6%; 60 to 70%: 50.0% against 64.3%; 70 to 80%: 58.9% against 74.1%; 80 to 90%: 68.5% against 84.6%). Markets priced at 50% or more a week out resolved Yes 66% of the time (402 favorites). Of 1,116 long shots priced at 20% or less, 68 resolved Yes (6.1%, against an average price of 4.9%). The Brier score is 0.111 overall and 0.221 on the 527 markets priced between 20% and 80%; always saying 50% would score 0.250, and lower is better.
66% resolved Yes
402 markets priced at 50% or more a week out
68 of 1,116 resolved Yes
markets priced at 20% or less a week out
0.111 overall
0.221 on markets priced 20% to 80%; always saying 50% scores 0.250
Each dot is a 10-point price band, placed at its average price and the share of its markets that resolved Yes; dots on the dashed diagonal are perfectly calibrated. Dot size grows with the number of markets; amber dots are bands where the gap is larger than normal sampling noise.
| Price 7 days before close | Markets | Average price | Resolved Yes | Difference | Sampling noise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 to 10% | 902 | 2.6% | 3.8% | +1.1 pts | outside |
| 10 to 20% | 202 | 14.1% | 16.3% | +2.2 pts | within |
| 20 to 30% | 114 | 24.1% | 19.3% | -4.8 pts | within |
| 30 to 40% | 110 | 34.2% | 29.1% | -5.1 pts | within |
| 40 to 50% | 85 | 43.7% | 37.6% | -6.1 pts | within |
| 50 to 60% | 75 | 54.5% | 46.7% | -7.9 pts | within |
| 60 to 70% | 80 | 64.3% | 50.0% | -14.3 pts | outside |
| 70 to 80% | 56 | 74.1% | 58.9% | -15.2 pts | outside |
| 80 to 90% | 73 | 84.6% | 68.5% | -16.1 pts | outside |
| 90 to 100% | 118 | 95.7% | 92.4% | -3.3 pts | within |
Sampling noise: the gap between a band's average price and its Yes share is "within" when it is at most two standard errors for a band of that size and price.
On the 1,130 markets with a price 30 days, 7 days and 1 day before close, the Brier score fell steadily as the close approached: 0.122, 0.090 and 0.066 (lower is better). Favorites resolved Yes 62%, 72% and 78% of the time at those three points.
| Price taken | Markets | Brier score | Brier, priced 20% to 80% (markets) | Favorites resolved Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days before close | 1,130 | 0.122 | 0.229 (378) | 62% of 252 |
| 7 days before close | 1,130 | 0.090 | 0.211 (308) | 72% of 266 |
| 1 day before close | 1,130 | 0.066 | 0.209 (255) | 78% of 277 |
Among Kalshi categories with at least 20 markets priced between 20% and 80% a week out, Economics had the lowest Brier score on those markets (0.200 on 60) and Entertainment the highest (0.302 on 62). With a few dozen markets per category, differences of a few hundredths are within noise.
| Category | Markets | Brier score | Brier, priced 20% to 80% (markets) | Favorites resolved Yes | Long shots that resolved Yes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 827 | 0.108 | 0.205 (244) | 69% | 44 of 571 |
| Economics | 206 | 0.104 | 0.200 (60) | 77% | 2 of 83 |
| Entertainment | 192 | 0.181 | 0.302 (62) | 32% | 8 of 108 |
| Elections | 135 | 0.031 | 0.150 (12) | 91% | 2 of 105 |
| Politics | 127 | 0.113 | 0.243 (44) | 68% | 4 of 67 |
| Crypto | 108 | 0.112 | 0.229 (29) | 79% | 5 of 76 |
| Mentions | 94 | 0.217 | 0.228 (60) | 53% | 2 of 21 |
| Science and Technology | 70 | 0.016 | 0.069 (3) | 94% | 0 of 52 |
Categories with at least 40 markets in the sample, as Kalshi labels the event. Categories full of long shots score better overall, so the 20% to 80% column is the fairer comparison.
Every market in the sample, with its prices 30, 7 and 1 day before close and its result: JSON · CSV (CC BY 4.0: credit “Kalshi View” with a link to this page). Current prices on the same markets' successors: Kalshi odds today and the biggest movers. Score your own forecasts the same way: Brier score and calibration calculator. Costs and returns of a position: Kalshi tools (fee, payout and APY calculators). A narrower check of eight 2024 election contracts: Kalshi 2024 election accuracy.
APA
How accurate is Kalshi? Calibration study. (2026, October 3). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 3, 2026 at 23:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/accuracy/
BibTeX
@misc{kalshiview2026marketsaccuracy, title = {How accurate is Kalshi? Calibration study}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-03 23:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/accuracy/}}HTML credit
<a href="https://kalshiview.com/markets/accuracy/">Odds data: Kalshi View</a>
CC BY 4.0: keep a visible link to this page. More formats: how to cite and reuse Kalshi View.
Across 1,815 settled Kalshi markets from 346 events that closed between October 5, 2025 and October 2, 2026, the gap between the price 7 days before close and the share of markets that resolved Yes was within normal sampling noise in 6 of 10 price bands (outside it, 0 to 10%: 3.8% resolved Yes against an average price of 2.6%; 60 to 70%: 50.0% against 64.3%; 70 to 80%: 58.9% against 74.1%; 80 to 90%: 68.5% against 84.6%). Markets priced at 50% or more a week out resolved Yes 66% of the time (402 favorites). Of 1,116 long shots priced at 20% or less, 68 resolved Yes (6.1%, against an average price of 4.9%). The Brier score is 0.111 overall and 0.221 on the 527 markets priced between 20% and 80%; always saying 50% would score 0.250, and lower is better.
On the 1,130 markets with a price 30 days, 7 days and 1 day before close, the Brier score fell steadily as the close approached: 0.122, 0.090 and 0.066 (lower is better). Favorites resolved Yes 62%, 72% and 78% of the time at those three points.
Among Kalshi categories with at least 20 markets priced between 20% and 80% a week out, Economics had the lowest Brier score on those markets (0.200 on 60) and Entertainment the highest (0.302 on 62). With a few dozen markets per category, differences of a few hundredths are within noise.
A calibrated market's 70% prices come true about 70% of the time. The table groups settled markets by their price a week before close and shows how often each group resolved Yes.
We scanned Kalshi's most traded series for markets that settled Yes or No in the 365 days before the collection date, traded at least 1,000 contracts and were open for at least 8 days, kept up to 15 of the most traded markets per event and the 2,000 most traded of those, and read each market's closing trade price for the last day with a trade in the week up to 7 days before its close from Kalshi's public daily price history. Single games, multi-leg parlays and hourly or daily series are left out.
Yes. Every market in the sample is in the free JSON and CSV files under CC BY 4.0: credit Kalshi View with a link to this page.