Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027? Kalshi Odds: Yes 3.5% Today

Snapshot October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC · Category: Crypto · Event KXSATOSHIBTCYEAR-27

Current odds

Chance = midpoint of the best Yes bid and ask on Kalshi (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Volume and open interest are in contracts. Current availability, prices, close time, fees, and settlement wording must be verified on Kalshi directly before trading.

Last 30 days

How this market settles

“If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.”

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Frequently asked questions

Outcome	Chance	24h change	Volume	Open interest
Yes	3.5%	-2 pts	377.9K	140.1K

What are the Kalshi odds for Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027?

As of October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes at 3.5% (4¢ per contract), with 377.9K contracts traded in total and 14.8K in the last 24 hours.

How are these Kalshi odds calculated?

Each outcome's probability is the midpoint between the best bid and ask for its Yes contract (or the last trade when the spread is wider than 10 cents). A 60-cent contract reads as roughly a 60% chance. The page is a dated snapshot refreshed twice a day, not a live quote.

When does the Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027 market close?

The listed close date is January 1, 2027. Settlement follows the contract rules summarised on this page; check them on Kalshi.

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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027? Kalshi Odds. (2026, October 4). Kalshi View. Retrieved October 4, 2026 at 11:20 UTC, from https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-before-2027/

BibTeX

@misc{kalshiview2026marketswillsatoshimoveanybitcoinbefore2027, title = {Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027? Kalshi Odds}, year = {2026}, month = {Oct}, note = {Snapshot 2026-10-04 11:20 UTC}, url = {https://kalshiview.com/markets/will-satoshi-move-any-bitcoin-before-2027/}}

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