Tools › Kalshi Fed funds futures calculator
Kalshi prices snapshot September 26, 2026 at 03:56 UTC · effective fed funds rate 3.88% (2026-09-24, New York Fed) · runs in your browser
Kalshi prices the October 28, 2026 FOMC decision directly: hike 25 bps 64%, hold 36%, an expected change of +15.5 bps. Fed funds futures price the same decision indirectly: with the effective fed funds rate at 3.88% (2026-09-24), the November 2026 contract would sit at about 95.965 if futures traders agreed with Kalshi. Type the real futures price below to compare the two.
| Decision | Chance on Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Cut more than 25 bps | 1.0% |
| Cut 25 bps | 1.0% |
| Hold | 36% |
| Hike 25 bps | 64% |
| Hike more than 25 bps | 1.5% |
Full market: Fed decision in Oct 2026?. Later meetings:
Rate after the meeting: -
Implied change: -
Chance of a 25 bps move: -
Chance of a 50 bps move: -
Kalshi expects +15.5 bps for the October 28, 2026 decision (tails counted at 50 bps).
Take the futures price from your broker or exchange; the default only shows what price would agree with Kalshi. The effective rate is from the New York Fed.
A fed funds futures contract settles on the average effective rate over its month. If the rate is rpre for the first m days and rpost for the other N minus m days, the average is (m x rpre + (N minus m) x rpost) / N, and 100 minus the price is that average. Solve for rpost, subtract rpre, and read the change against 25 bps steps: +16 bps is a 64% chance of a 25 bps hike. When the meeting is late in its month and the next month has no meeting, the next month's contract carries the new rate for every day, so m is 0.
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Take 100 minus the futures price to get the expected average rate for the month, solve for the rate after the meeting using the days before and after the decision, and divide the implied change by 25 bps: +15 bps is about a 60% chance of a 25 bps hike.
The meeting month's contract averages the old and new rates, and a decision late in the month moves only a few days of it. When the next month has no meeting, its contract reflects the new rate for the whole month, so it gives a cleaner reading: set the days before the change to 0.
Kalshi trades each outcome of a meeting as its own market, so its prices are already chances. Futures give an expected rate that has to be turned into odds, and they also move with the gap between the effective rate and the target range.
The New York Fed publishes the effective federal funds rate (EFFR) each business day; the page reads the latest value when it is rebuilt, twice a day.