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Primary sources checked: On July 17, 2026, we reviewed Kalshi's explanation of standard $1 winning contracts, its market-rules guide, market-outcomes guide, official fee schedule, API documentation for fee rounding, and official documentation for market settlement. The calculator is an independent estimate and does not read live Kalshi prices or an account.
These formulas model a purchased position in a standard cash-funded binary event contract that pays $1 per contract when the selected side is correct and $0 when it is wrong. They do not model Kalshi perpetual futures, margin, liquidation, funding payments, or leveraged exposure.
They also do not override special market rules. Kalshi documents scalar and other non-standard settlement values. Check the full rules and settlement terms before using a Yes/No shortcut.
| Input | Symbol | Meaning | Common mistake |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price paid | p | Executable price for the side purchased, in dollars per contract | Using a chart midpoint or the opposite side instead of the fill or current ask |
| Contracts | n | Number of contracts modeled | Confusing contracts with dollars of stake |
| Total fees | f | Manual dollar estimate for fees included in this scenario | Assuming the calculator fetches the current fee schedule |
| Your probability | q | Your independently estimated chance that the purchased side is correct | Treating market price as both the input price and an independent forecast |
| Close value | x | Modeled sale or settlement value per contract | Ignoring the executable bid, spread, depth, or special rule |
| Output | Formula | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Entry cost | n × p | Contract purchase cost before the manual fee input |
| Cash at risk | n × p + f | Estimated loss if the selected side resolves wrong and no other cash flow applies |
| Gross payout if correct | n × $1 | Standard binary payout before subtracting cost |
| Net profit if correct | n × (1 − p) − f | Gross payout minus entry cost and fee estimate |
| Break-even per contract | (n × p + f) ÷ n | Equivalent probability threshold if held to standard binary settlement |
| Expected value | n × q − (n × p + f) | Model EV using your probability, not a guaranteed result |
| Close-value result | n × x − (n × p + f) | Estimate at a modeled exit or non-standard value |
Suppose the modeled trade is 100 contracts on the selected side at 63¢, with $2.50 entered as total estimated fees and a personal probability estimate of 68%.
100 × $0.63 = $63.00$63.00 + $2.50 = $65.50100 × $1 = $100.00$100.00 − $65.50 = $34.50$65.50 ÷ 100 = $0.655, or 65.5%100 × 0.68 − $65.50 = $2.50The $2.50 EV is a model output, not a claim about the true probability. If the 68% estimate is poorly calibrated, the arithmetic can be precise while the decision is wrong.
If you buy YES, enter the executable YES price. If you buy NO, enter the executable NO price. In both cases the calculator treats p as the price actually paid for the selected side and a correct standard binary result as a $1 payout.
Do not automatically convert a displayed YES price into 1 − YES and call that the tradable NO price. YES and NO accounting is complementary, but the executable bid and ask depend on the side and order book. Read the order-book guide and use the slippage calculator for execution estimates.
A 63¢ purchase corresponds to a nominal 63% implied probability before fees. With $2.50 of total estimated fees across 100 contracts, the modeled break-even rises to 65.5%. Spread and slippage can raise the effective entry price further.
Break-even is the probability at which the model's expected value equals zero. It does not prove that the true chance is above or below that threshold. The difficult input is q, the trader's calibrated probability estimate; the rest is bookkeeping.
The independent calculator intentionally uses a manual total-fee field. It does not infer maker or taker status, market-specific fee treatment, fractional quantity, subpenny price, rounding fee, or rebate. Kalshi's API documentation explains that individual fills can produce trade fees, rounding fees, and accumulator rebates.
For a pre-trade estimate, review the current fee schedule and order confirmation. For an executed trade, use the actual fill and fee records. A single assumed percentage can be wrong when an order fills in pieces or a market has different terms.
A position does not always need to be held to determination. If the modeled exit value is 75¢, the same 100-contract example gives:
100 × $0.75 − $65.50 = $9.50 estimated result.
This uses 75¢ as money received per contract. A real exit requires an executable bid and enough depth at that price. The last trade or chart price is not a guarantee that all 100 contracts can be sold there.
The useful sizing number is cash at risk, not gross payout or return percentage. Choose a portfolio loss limit first, then solve:
maximum contracts = floor((risk budget − fee estimate) ÷ price paid)
This is arithmetic, not a universal recommendation. A sensible risk budget depends on total capital, correlation with other positions, liquidity, settlement time, and the uncertainty in the probability estimate. Avoid treating a high modeled return on risk as permission to concentrate the portfolio.
Use the calculator as a transparent scenario worksheet, then verify the active quote, market rules, fee terms, and settlement source.
For a standard binary contract that pays $1 when the purchased side is correct, gross payout equals winning contracts times $1. Net profit if correct equals gross payout minus entry cost and the total fee estimate. The active market rules control whether the contract has standard binary settlement.
For n standard binary contracts bought at p dollars each with f dollars of total estimated fees, break-even per contract is (n × p + f) ÷ n. Expressed in cents, multiply by 100. This assumes the fee estimate is complete and the position is held to a $1-or-$0 settlement.
No conversion is necessary if the calculator asks for the price actually paid for the selected side. Enter the executable NO price for a NO purchase. Do not automatically assume it equals 1 minus the displayed YES price because bid-ask spreads and the side of the book matter.
No. The Kalshi View calculator takes a manual total-fee estimate. Fee schedules, market-specific exceptions, maker or taker status, fill splitting, and rounding can change the actual amount. Verify the official fee schedule and order confirmation.
Yes. Kalshi documents scalar and special-rule outcomes, and some combo components can have non-standard values. The calculator's resolves-right and resolves-wrong shortcuts are for standard binary contracts. Use the exact market rules and the close-price scenario for other modeled values.
It does not pull live quotes or account data and does not automatically include fees, rebates, slippage, partial fills, order-book depth, taxes, special settlement rules, or margin and perpetual-futures mechanics. It is an estimate-only arithmetic tool.
Estimate only; not financial, tax, or legal advice. This independent site is not affiliated with Kalshi. The active market rules, executable order book, official fee schedule, account records, and settlement result control. Trading involves risk, and you can lose money.