Photo: Tony Webster. Source (Wikimedia Commons). License: CC BY 2.0. Historical May 31, 2024 Department of Commerce setting; BEA is a Commerce agency. Cropped and resized; not BEA's current office or the November 2026 release scene. No endorsement implied.
October 2026 core PCE data is scheduled for Wednesday, November 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EST (13:30 UTC). It covers October, not November. The October 6 Kalshi snapshot lists an 8:25 a.m. EST trading cutoff, five minutes before the report.
Source snapshot: October 6, 2026 (05:30-05:35 UTC).
BEA's release schedule, official calendar file and core-PCE definition establish the date, clock and measure. Kalshi's exact October event record and full COREPCE contract terms establish the observed contract details. This is a static source checklist, not a live price page.
BEA labels the report “Personal Income and Outlays, October 2026.” Its official calendar file records 13:30 UTC, confirming 8:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time rather than daylight time. The nearby reference months are easy to confuse with publication months:
These are scheduled releases, not publication guarantees. BEA also schedules Q3 GDP's second estimate and Corporate Profits for November 25 at 8:30 a.m. EST. Those simultaneous headlines are not the monthly core-PCE figure. October CPI comes from BLS, not BEA; see the separate October CPI schedule.
The relevant measure is the single-decimal month-over-month change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy. BEA's overview prominently shows change from one year earlier. That year-over-year reading is not the contract measure, and headline PCE does not exclude food and energy.
A quarterly core-PCE figure in GDP coverage is not the monthly contract input simply because it arrives at the same time.
On October 6, KXPCECORE-26OCT, titled “How much will core PCE increase in Oct 2026?”, had five active threshold contracts: above 0.0%, 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3% and 0.4%. These are overlapping thresholds, not mutually exclusive buckets or a forecast range.
For KXPCECORE-26OCT-T0.2, “above 0.2%” is strict. A hypothetical published single-decimal reading of 0.2% would not qualify; 0.3% would. Those are arithmetic examples, not October results. Do not use extra decimal places to override the specified measure. Several thresholds can resolve Yes, so their prices should not be added as mutually exclusive probabilities.
BEA's calendar and all five observed October contracts give three different November 25 clocks:
| Clock | New York (EST) | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Observed trading close | 8:25 a.m. | 13:25 |
| Scheduled BEA release | 8:30 a.m. | 13:30 |
| Observed expected expiration | 10:00 a.m. | 15:00 |
The terms set expiration at the earlier of the first 10:00 a.m. ET following the release of data for the entire reference month or one week after the scheduled release. The record listed December 2 at 10:00 a.m. EST as latest expiration, not another BEA release date.
Early closure is permitted. Expected expiration does not promise settlement or wallet credit at that time. The full terms provide for settlement no later than the day after expiration unless the outcome is under review. They also contain contingencies for changes to the source, underlying or specifications.
Check the table labels again if BEA changes its page layout. The contract's table-navigation instructions are explicitly for convenience, not binding terms; a familiar-looking page does not replace verification of the month, measure and threshold.
For broader contract mechanics, see the evergreen core-PCE guide. It complements this dated calendar page but does not replace checking the current official records.
BEA schedules the release for Wednesday, November 25, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. EST, or 13:30 UTC. That timing was checked on October 6 against BEA's schedule and official calendar file. Traders should recheck the calendar because scheduled publication dates can change.
The verified October event covers October 2026 and uses the single-decimal month-over-month change in the PCE price index excluding food and energy. It does not use November data, headline PCE or year-over-year core PCE. Check the specific threshold and current contract rules directly.
The October 6 snapshot lists an 8:25 a.m. EST close, while BEA schedules publication for 8:30 a.m. EST. The five-minute gap follows the contract's stated trading cutoff, rather than a promise of access through publication. The record also allows early closure, so traders must recheck status.
No. The observed 10:00 a.m. EST expected expiration is separate from the trading cutoff, report publication and wallet credit. The full terms include settlement and outcome-review provisions, so the timestamp should not be treated as a guaranteed payout deadline or a guaranteed balance update.
Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is speculative, and you can lose money. Do your own research.
